{"bundle_id":"3a57081f-d16c-48d3-80e3-5421ddd6b5c8","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-12T00:18:01.054556+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"97978ca0-8da4-4499-a56a-5c8f2483b353","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.809,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.9,"delta_7d":-13.55,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":141.9887,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.4348,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":232,"signal_score":3.3674,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"9b7188c9-3a4f-4663-a425-dc41d05b7904","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-12T00:19:19.086027+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-12T00:15:19.339226+00:00","external_market_id":"3128886","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.809,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.9,"delta_7d":-13.55,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":141.9887,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.4348,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":232,"signal_score":3.3674,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-05T01:00:00+00:00",0.9445],["2026-08-05T02:00:00+00:00",0.9335],["2026-08-05T08:00:00+00:00",0.9635],["2026-08-05T09:00:00+00:00",0.9635],["2026-08-05T15:00:00+00:00",0.948],["2026-08-05T16:00:00+00:00",0.983],["2026-08-05T19:00:00+00:00",0.9585],["2026-08-05T23:00:00+00:00",0.9605],["2026-08-06T04:00:00+00:00",0.9355],["2026-08-06T07:00:00+00:00",0.9335],["2026-08-06T13:00:00+00:00",0.9605],["2026-08-06T15:00:00+00:00",0.967],["2026-08-06T18:00:00+00:00",0.948],["2026-08-06T22:00:00+00:00",0.9455],["2026-08-07T02:00:00+00:00",0.938],["2026-08-07T06:00:00+00:00",0.94],["2026-08-07T11:00:00+00:00",0.966],["2026-08-07T12:00:00+00:00",0.9645],["2026-08-07T14:00:00+00:00",0.9525],["2026-08-07T21:00:00+00:00",0.944],["2026-08-07T23:00:00+00:00",0.9575],["2026-08-08T05:00:00+00:00",0.952],["2026-08-08T08:00:00+00:00",0.961],["2026-08-08T10:00:00+00:00",0.957],["2026-08-08T16:00:00+00:00",0.9385],["2026-08-08T17:00:00+00:00",0.9415],["2026-08-08T21:00:00+00:00",0.929],["2026-08-09T00:00:00+00:00",0.9225],["2026-08-09T04:00:00+00:00",0.914],["2026-08-09T08:00:00+00:00",0.922],["2026-08-09T12:05:00+00:00",0.783],["2026-08-09T14:05:00+00:00",0.858],["2026-08-09T16:05:00+00:00",0.833],["2026-08-09T21:05:00+00:00",0.8615],["2026-08-10T02:05:00+00:00",0.83],["2026-08-10T04:05:00+00:00",0.833],["2026-08-10T09:05:00+00:00",0.843],["2026-08-10T14:05:00+00:00",0.828],["2026-08-10T17:05:00+00:00",0.799],["2026-08-10T18:05:00+00:00",0.796],["2026-08-10T22:05:00+00:00",0.783],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.791],["2026-08-11T06:05:00+00:00",0.782],["2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00",0.776],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.8145],["2026-08-11T16:05:00+00:00",0.7975],["2026-08-11T20:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-12T00:05:00+00:00",0.809]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-05T01:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-12T00:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":170,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":20.7,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"9b7188c9-3a4f-4663-a425-dc41d05b7904","title":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"0738c9613e90328f791dfae3cfc6937f2b210943ba79dd63a4e3e64678885335","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-12T00:15:19.339226+00:00","source_markets":["9b7188c9-3a4f-4663-a425-dc41d05b7904"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}