{"bundle_id":"7d473993-30be-4774-b56d-2a8c4ac2b157","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-19T01:20:19.601432+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"55496673-d011-43f5-83cf-fecf7eeeeccb","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.235,"data_completeness":0.0312,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":7.0,"delta_7d":7.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":41.9464,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.25,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":9,"signal_score":8.375,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"09c8d64b-59fa-41c1-937e-78fe2d1de992","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-19T01:23:08.663152+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T01:17:15.325870+00:00","external_market_id":"3517858","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.235,"data_completeness":0.0312,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":7.0,"delta_7d":7.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":41.9464,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.25,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":9,"signal_score":8.375,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-18T17:05:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-18T18:05:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-18T19:05:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-18T20:05:00+00:00",0.26],["2026-08-18T21:05:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-18T22:05:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-18T23:05:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-19T00:05:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-19T01:10:00+00:00",0.235]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"insufficient_observations","first_observed_at":"2026-08-18T17:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-19T01:10:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":9,"points_returned":9,"probability_range_percentage_points":10.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":8.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"09c8d64b-59fa-41c1-937e-78fe2d1de992","title":"Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"7722cc4e3941b7c5a02937d058818e8e84a134b49e01774035693fa9488c3f28","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T01:17:15.325870+00:00","source_markets":["09c8d64b-59fa-41c1-937e-78fe2d1de992"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}