{"bundle_id":"1521bcb6-befb-4bcc-af7c-949db94aa051","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-12T04:17:39.129165+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"886a7b5e-ed96-4cbe-8924-5c55879deff5","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0795,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":3.45,"delta_7d":-5.55,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":49.8215,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.2083,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":173,"signal_score":4.8041,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"4e81b08e-0f5a-4c6c-a18e-4166b4a7be3f","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-12T04:20:21.523102+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-12T04:16:03.127463+00:00","external_market_id":"3350268","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0795,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":3.45,"delta_7d":-5.55,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":49.8215,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.2083,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":173,"signal_score":4.8041,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-05T05:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-05T06:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-05T10:00:00+00:00",0.0255],["2026-08-05T13:00:00+00:00",0.03],["2026-08-05T19:00:00+00:00",0.0295],["2026-08-05T20:00:00+00:00",0.04],["2026-08-06T02:00:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-06T05:00:00+00:00",0.0575],["2026-08-06T10:00:00+00:00",0.0385],["2026-08-06T11:00:00+00:00",0.0385],["2026-08-06T15:00:00+00:00",0.039],["2026-08-06T18:00:00+00:00",0.039],["2026-08-06T23:00:00+00:00",0.0385],["2026-08-07T01:00:00+00:00",0.0385],["2026-08-07T07:00:00+00:00",0.038],["2026-08-07T08:00:00+00:00",0.039],["2026-08-07T09:00:00+00:00",0.0405],["2026-08-07T16:00:00+00:00",0.0395],["2026-08-07T18:00:00+00:00",0.039],["2026-08-07T23:00:00+00:00",0.039],["2026-08-08T04:00:00+00:00",0.054],["2026-08-08T07:00:00+00:00",0.057],["2026-08-08T09:00:00+00:00",0.0555],["2026-08-08T13:00:00+00:00",0.056],["2026-08-08T17:00:00+00:00",0.038],["2026-08-08T21:00:00+00:00",0.038],["2026-08-09T01:00:00+00:00",0.0365],["2026-08-09T04:00:00+00:00",0.0445],["2026-08-09T05:00:00+00:00",0.037],["2026-08-09T11:00:00+00:00",0.039],["2026-08-09T16:00:00+00:00",0.038],["2026-08-09T19:00:00+00:00",0.038],["2026-08-10T01:00:00+00:00",0.062],["2026-08-10T04:00:00+00:00",0.043],["2026-08-10T06:00:00+00:00",0.06],["2026-08-10T09:00:00+00:00",0.0505],["2026-08-10T13:00:00+00:00",0.0435],["2026-08-10T16:00:00+00:00",0.045],["2026-08-10T17:00:00+00:00",0.043],["2026-08-11T01:00:00+00:00",0.0445],["2026-08-11T04:00:00+00:00",0.0455],["2026-08-11T07:00:00+00:00",0.045],["2026-08-11T08:00:00+00:00",0.0455],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.0455],["2026-08-11T15:05:00+00:00",0.0425],["2026-08-11T20:05:00+00:00",0.0425],["2026-08-12T02:05:00+00:00",0.0815],["2026-08-12T04:05:00+00:00",0.0795]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-05T05:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-12T04:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":10.95,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"4e81b08e-0f5a-4c6c-a18e-4166b4a7be3f","title":"Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"651c4c39284059de19921436e724adb434e904090682956e2b80604bb7fe3a95","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-12T04:16:03.127463+00:00","source_markets":["4e81b08e-0f5a-4c6c-a18e-4166b4a7be3f"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}