{"bundle_id":"41ae1f12-e023-4a6a-b3e2-b35fc263c757","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-11T20:18:48.144598+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"47d3043c-c4ba-478e-b9ce-22b7900da34d","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.485,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.0,"delta_7d":-12.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":141.156,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":228,"signal_score":3.3369,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"99fda957-5889-4fc6-ab95-d26ba06de8d2","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-11T20:19:16.924731+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T20:15:23.397979+00:00","external_market_id":"2176270","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.485,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.0,"delta_7d":-12.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":141.156,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":228,"signal_score":3.3369,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-04T21:00:00+00:00",0.605],["2026-08-04T22:00:00+00:00",0.605],["2026-08-05T04:00:00+00:00",0.635],["2026-08-05T05:00:00+00:00",0.635],["2026-08-05T09:00:00+00:00",0.615],["2026-08-05T12:00:00+00:00",0.615],["2026-08-05T13:00:00+00:00",0.625],["2026-08-05T19:00:00+00:00",0.605],["2026-08-05T20:00:00+00:00",0.615],["2026-08-06T03:00:00+00:00",0.615],["2026-08-06T10:00:00+00:00",0.615],["2026-08-06T14:00:00+00:00",0.625],["2026-08-06T17:00:00+00:00",0.625],["2026-08-06T21:00:00+00:00",0.595],["2026-08-07T00:00:00+00:00",0.595],["2026-08-07T08:00:00+00:00",0.595],["2026-08-07T09:00:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-07T15:00:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-07T21:00:00+00:00",0.605],["2026-08-07T22:00:00+00:00",0.605],["2026-08-07T23:00:00+00:00",0.595],["2026-08-08T05:00:00+00:00",0.595],["2026-08-08T13:00:00+00:00",0.595],["2026-08-08T19:00:00+00:00",0.575],["2026-08-08T20:00:00+00:00",0.57],["2026-08-09T02:00:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-09T03:00:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-09T09:05:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-09T13:05:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-09T17:05:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-09T23:05:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-10T00:05:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-10T04:05:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-10T07:05:00+00:00",0.485],["2026-08-10T10:05:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-10T14:05:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-10T22:05:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-11T05:05:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-11T14:05:00+00:00",0.525],["2026-08-11T19:05:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-11T20:05:00+00:00",0.485]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-04T21:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-11T20:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":42,"probability_range_percentage_points":17.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"99fda957-5889-4fc6-ab95-d26ba06de8d2","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"c4ed864ab2452af62f4c4dc053d4d88ee80261b0da5765c89d275e41e70da685","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T20:15:23.397979+00:00","source_markets":["99fda957-5889-4fc6-ab95-d26ba06de8d2"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}