{"bundle_id":"5e237d85-2b0a-44ba-ae6d-11f84cf56950","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-20T06:21:55.827072+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"acb95c46-38d4-485f-af07-b726fe6dcf71","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.6985,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":0.9,"delta_7d":-14.6,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":133.7382,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.3913,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":430,"signal_score":1.0957,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"9b7188c9-3a4f-4663-a425-dc41d05b7904","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-20T06:23:53.321062+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T06:16:03.435058+00:00","external_market_id":"3128886","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.6985,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":0.9,"delta_7d":-14.6,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":133.7382,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3913,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":430,"signal_score":1.0957,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-13T07:05:00+00:00",0.8445],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.847],["2026-08-13T13:05:00+00:00",0.839],["2026-08-13T15:05:00+00:00",0.8425],["2026-08-13T17:05:00+00:00",0.816],["2026-08-13T22:05:00+00:00",0.8225],["2026-08-14T04:05:00+00:00",0.816],["2026-08-14T05:05:00+00:00",0.8175],["2026-08-14T11:05:00+00:00",0.789],["2026-08-14T14:05:00+00:00",0.7765],["2026-08-14T17:05:00+00:00",0.7855],["2026-08-14T23:05:00+00:00",0.7925],["2026-08-15T00:05:00+00:00",0.7795],["2026-08-15T03:05:00+00:00",0.7835],["2026-08-15T05:05:00+00:00",0.7795],["2026-08-15T10:05:00+00:00",0.7825],["2026-08-15T14:05:00+00:00",0.799],["2026-08-15T17:05:00+00:00",0.7905],["2026-08-15T19:05:00+00:00",0.7995],["2026-08-16T01:05:00+00:00",0.791],["2026-08-16T04:05:00+00:00",0.7985],["2026-08-16T08:05:00+00:00",0.7965],["2026-08-16T13:05:00+00:00",0.7925],["2026-08-16T15:05:00+00:00",0.793],["2026-08-16T21:05:00+00:00",0.8085],["2026-08-16T22:05:00+00:00",0.8095],["2026-08-17T03:05:00+00:00",0.7955],["2026-08-17T05:05:00+00:00",0.7945],["2026-08-17T12:05:00+00:00",0.7855],["2026-08-17T14:05:00+00:00",0.7705],["2026-08-17T17:05:00+00:00",0.777],["2026-08-17T21:05:00+00:00",0.767],["2026-08-18T01:05:00+00:00",0.726],["2026-08-18T03:05:00+00:00",0.7205],["2026-08-18T08:05:00+00:00",0.7295],["2026-08-18T11:05:00+00:00",0.7265],["2026-08-18T15:05:00+00:00",0.698],["2026-08-18T18:05:00+00:00",0.6535],["2026-08-18T20:05:00+00:00",0.69],["2026-08-19T02:05:00+00:00",0.685],["2026-08-19T06:05:00+00:00",0.6895],["2026-08-19T11:05:00+00:00",0.6885],["2026-08-19T13:05:00+00:00",0.6825],["2026-08-19T15:05:00+00:00",0.69],["2026-08-19T19:05:00+00:00",0.7005],["2026-08-19T22:05:00+00:00",0.699],["2026-08-20T00:05:00+00:00",0.694],["2026-08-20T06:05:00+00:00",0.6985]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-13T07:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-20T06:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":168,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":19.35,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"9b7188c9-3a4f-4663-a425-dc41d05b7904","title":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"3dba84801534478199d33b572d5c1d4e8c4f33e9e663fd11ebd9ad6854e098b0","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T06:16:03.435058+00:00","source_markets":["9b7188c9-3a4f-4663-a425-dc41d05b7904"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}