{"bundle_id":"cd51bff3-9813-44a2-985c-6bb6395eb098","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-16T07:16:57.283524+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"c5237ed0-16cf-4977-8be9-fd8deef0412c","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.215,"data_completeness":0.059,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.0,"delta_7d":2.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":5.3646,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.125,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":110,"signal_score":2.0625,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"61c3df89-4182-4967-8974-a4692b3ebd51","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-16T07:21:20.048286+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-16T07:14:55.552604+00:00","external_market_id":"3506007","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.215,"data_completeness":0.059,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.0,"delta_7d":2.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":5.3646,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"persistence":0.125,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":110,"signal_score":2.0625,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-11T11:10:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-11T12:05:00+00:00",0.2],["2026-08-11T14:10:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-11T16:10:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-11T21:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-12T02:10:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-12T06:10:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-12T11:10:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-12T16:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-12T20:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-13T01:10:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-13T06:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-13T09:05:00+00:00",0.2],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-13T15:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-13T20:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-14T01:10:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-14T05:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-14T06:05:00+00:00",0.2],["2026-08-14T10:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-14T11:05:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-14T15:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-14T18:05:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-14T19:05:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-14T20:05:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-15T00:05:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-15T02:05:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-15T05:05:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-15T08:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-15T09:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-15T16:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-16T01:05:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-16T02:05:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-16T04:05:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-16T07:05:00+00:00",0.215]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-21T16:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-11T11:10:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-16T07:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":8.0,"observation_count":110,"points_returned":35,"probability_range_percentage_points":4.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":115.9},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"61c3df89-4182-4967-8974-a4692b3ebd51","title":"Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"fdf40dd91ac6f2007f1c8398e8b108e7d09d8f770f8f06eec5bde465c04e5d6b","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-16T07:14:55.552604+00:00","source_markets":["61c3df89-4182-4967-8974-a4692b3ebd51"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}