{"bundle_id":"25281838-ffcb-41f4-a43a-b9cfb5735151","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-18T09:21:36.971781+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"53e3e338-3e86-4d22-9736-5446891b3713","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.225,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":3.5,"delta_7d":4.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":134.6149,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":196,"signal_score":3.587,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"3a5c2e0d-1991-4d70-980d-5cb8031f86c9","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-18T09:22:12.481485+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T09:14:33.136580+00:00","external_market_id":"2853074","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.225,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":3.5,"delta_7d":4.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":134.6149,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":196,"signal_score":3.587,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-11T10:05:00+00:00",0.18],["2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00",0.18],["2026-08-11T16:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-11T18:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-12T01:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-12T10:05:00+00:00",0.17],["2026-08-12T20:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-12T21:05:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-12T23:05:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-13T06:05:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-13T09:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-13T13:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-13T20:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-14T02:05:00+00:00",0.17],["2026-08-14T03:05:00+00:00",0.17],["2026-08-14T11:05:00+00:00",0.17],["2026-08-14T18:05:00+00:00",0.17],["2026-08-14T20:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-15T01:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-15T08:05:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-15T12:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-15T16:05:00+00:00",0.18],["2026-08-15T23:05:00+00:00",0.18],["2026-08-16T01:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-16T06:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-16T08:05:00+00:00",0.18],["2026-08-16T16:05:00+00:00",0.17],["2026-08-16T17:05:00+00:00",0.18],["2026-08-16T20:05:00+00:00",0.18],["2026-08-17T05:05:00+00:00",0.2],["2026-08-17T09:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-17T11:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-17T18:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-17T23:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-18T01:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-18T07:05:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-18T09:05:00+00:00",0.225]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-11T10:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-18T09:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":168,"points_returned":38,"probability_range_percentage_points":7.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"3a5c2e0d-1991-4d70-980d-5cb8031f86c9","title":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"f7ee69335624801855995234c47cba58ba52ec47aaafd1f746cabca055f2a670","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T09:14:33.136580+00:00","source_markets":["3a5c2e0d-1991-4d70-980d-5cb8031f86c9"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}