{"bundle_id":"01651f83-3e6e-4202-a371-3d770a2dfc0f","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-17T07:20:11.968226+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"5c16dc28-860c-46fe-bc25-4a47746d992c","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.275,"data_completeness":0.0625,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.5,"delta_7d":-4.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":135.6982,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1176,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":26,"signal_score":1.5588,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"b35ea12c-40bd-4ec4-b982-91cc351865d7","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-17T07:21:58.678801+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-17T07:14:39.010709+00:00","external_market_id":"2749311","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.275,"data_completeness":0.0625,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.5,"delta_7d":-4.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":135.6982,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1176,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":26,"signal_score":1.5588,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-13T06:05:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-13T07:05:00+00:00",0.3],["2026-08-13T08:05:00+00:00",0.29],["2026-08-13T09:05:00+00:00",0.29],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.29],["2026-08-13T11:05:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-13T12:10:00+00:00",0.29],["2026-08-13T13:05:00+00:00",0.29],["2026-08-16T14:05:00+00:00",0.29],["2026-08-16T15:05:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-16T16:05:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-16T17:05:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-16T18:05:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-16T19:05:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-16T20:05:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-16T21:05:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-16T22:05:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-16T23:05:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-17T00:05:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-17T01:05:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-17T02:05:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-17T03:05:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-17T04:05:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-17T05:05:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-17T06:05:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-17T07:05:00+00:00",0.275]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-13T06:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-17T07:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":73.0,"observation_count":26,"points_returned":26,"probability_range_percentage_points":4.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":97.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"b35ea12c-40bd-4ec4-b982-91cc351865d7","title":"Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"f952fbf77a8f6cd49349a55c9c2ed7a0bbec21a1b1c34da9a27e29044e7a1631","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-17T07:14:39.010709+00:00","source_markets":["b35ea12c-40bd-4ec4-b982-91cc351865d7"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}