{"bundle_id":"f3132953-d9d4-4326-abf2-61889979e5a6","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-18T06:20:47.606289+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"0c632318-93cb-4aee-a3a9-384870832873","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.055,"data_completeness":0.0312,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-8.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":42.7399,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.125,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":194,"signal_score":1.0625,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"c885f565-3135-48a3-99a6-008a141102f0","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-18T06:22:20.472046+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T06:14:35.175163+00:00","external_market_id":"3128298","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.055,"data_completeness":0.0312,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-8.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":42.7399,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.125,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":194,"signal_score":1.0625,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-11T07:00:00+00:00",0.14],["2026-08-11T08:00:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-11T09:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-11T15:00:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-11T17:00:00+00:00",0.12],["2026-08-11T22:00:00+00:00",0.11],["2026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-12T05:00:00+00:00",0.11],["2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00",0.11],["2026-08-12T19:00:00+00:00",0.11],["2026-08-12T21:00:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-13T02:00:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-13T04:00:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-13T09:00:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-13T16:00:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-13T23:00:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-14T06:00:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-14T13:00:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-14T20:00:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-15T03:00:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-15T08:00:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-15T10:00:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-15T14:00:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-15T17:00:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-16T00:00:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-16T07:00:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-16T12:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-16T14:00:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-16T17:05:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-16T20:00:00+00:00",0.06],["2026-08-16T21:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-16T22:05:00+00:00",0.06],["2026-08-17T01:05:00+00:00",0.06],["2026-08-17T02:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-17T08:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-17T10:05:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-18T06:05:00+00:00",0.055]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-11T07:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-18T06:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":16.0,"observation_count":163,"points_returned":37,"probability_range_percentage_points":8.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"c885f565-3135-48a3-99a6-008a141102f0","title":"Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"696640516660a8225c3efa311fd4cb8640c35ec442cf43c53f056db9e6385ac9","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T06:14:35.175163+00:00","source_markets":["c885f565-3135-48a3-99a6-008a141102f0"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}