{"bundle_id":"23ea432a-ac0b-489b-b6f5-b74bb102f6e8","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-11T12:18:07.145695+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"e0c2e674-202e-4854-86cf-000776fb630c","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.012,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-0.75,"delta_7d":-0.45,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":20.4892,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","military"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.3478,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":220,"signal_score":2.1739,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"256af836-1fbe-49bd-b9fc-85e8c5d71032","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-11T12:19:09.148760+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T12:14:30.859822+00:00","external_market_id":"2995866","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.012,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-0.75,"delta_7d":-0.45,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":20.4892,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","military"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3478,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":220,"signal_score":2.1739,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-04T13:00:00+00:00",0.0165],["2026-08-04T14:00:00+00:00",0.0165],["2026-08-04T17:00:00+00:00",0.0175],["2026-08-04T21:00:00+00:00",0.02],["2026-08-05T03:00:00+00:00",0.017],["2026-08-05T04:00:00+00:00",0.017],["2026-08-05T08:00:00+00:00",0.016],["2026-08-05T12:00:00+00:00",0.017],["2026-08-05T15:00:00+00:00",0.016],["2026-08-05T19:00:00+00:00",0.016],["2026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00",0.0155],["2026-08-06T02:00:00+00:00",0.0155],["2026-08-06T06:00:00+00:00",0.015],["2026-08-06T09:00:00+00:00",0.0145],["2026-08-06T16:00:00+00:00",0.0145],["2026-08-07T00:00:00+00:00",0.0145],["2026-08-07T04:00:00+00:00",0.015],["2026-08-07T07:00:00+00:00",0.015],["2026-08-07T11:00:00+00:00",0.0145],["2026-08-07T14:00:00+00:00",0.0145],["2026-08-07T21:00:00+00:00",0.0145],["2026-08-08T05:00:00+00:00",0.0145],["2026-08-08T13:00:00+00:00",0.015],["2026-08-08T18:00:00+00:00",0.013],["2026-08-08T19:00:00+00:00",0.013],["2026-08-09T02:00:00+00:00",0.013],["2026-08-09T03:00:00+00:00",0.025],["2026-08-09T09:05:00+00:00",0.0225],["2026-08-09T12:05:00+00:00",0.0205],["2026-08-09T18:05:00+00:00",0.0165],["2026-08-09T20:05:00+00:00",0.0215],["2026-08-09T23:05:00+00:00",0.019],["2026-08-10T02:05:00+00:00",0.0195],["2026-08-10T06:05:00+00:00",0.0195],["2026-08-10T07:05:00+00:00",0.0185],["2026-08-10T14:05:00+00:00",0.015],["2026-08-10T17:05:00+00:00",0.013],["2026-08-10T23:05:00+00:00",0.0145],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.013],["2026-08-11T04:05:00+00:00",0.013],["2026-08-11T10:05:00+00:00",0.012],["2026-08-11T12:05:00+00:00",0.012]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-04T13:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-11T12:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":42,"probability_range_percentage_points":1.3,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"256af836-1fbe-49bd-b9fc-85e8c5d71032","title":"Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"9265d8755ebb4f908cf1dec44a03351dda00844ef6a968e457d489937817983c","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T12:14:30.859822+00:00","source_markets":["256af836-1fbe-49bd-b9fc-85e8c5d71032"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}