{"bundle_id":"f7f14a5a-470f-45f0-853c-8df6776334a6","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-15T18:19:46.536015+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"b6030db7-6c14-4833-98cd-cf0c33341c1f","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.365,"data_completeness":0.0312,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":14.0,"delta_7d":18.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":2.9052,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.75,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":66,"signal_score":14.375,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"b778a515-bf68-40eb-a1af-dc5d58908fb4","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-15T18:19:52.204120+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T18:16:33.431688+00:00","external_market_id":"3414473","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.365,"data_completeness":0.0312,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":14.0,"delta_7d":18.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":2.9052,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"persistence":0.75,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":66,"signal_score":14.375,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-11T00:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-11T01:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-11T03:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-11T06:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-11T07:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-11T09:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-11T19:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-11T20:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-11T21:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-12T00:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-12T03:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-12T06:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-12T09:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-12T11:10:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-12T13:05:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-12T14:05:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-12T17:05:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-12T18:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-13T06:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-13T08:05:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-13T09:05:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-13T12:10:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-13T13:05:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-13T15:05:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-13T17:05:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-13T18:05:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-13T20:05:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-13T22:05:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-13T23:05:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-15T11:05:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-15T12:05:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-15T14:05:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-15T15:05:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-15T17:05:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-15T18:05:00+00:00",0.365]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-18T16:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-11T00:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-15T18:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":35.0,"observation_count":66,"points_returned":37,"probability_range_percentage_points":18.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":114.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"b778a515-bf68-40eb-a1af-dc5d58908fb4","title":"Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"41f52727bc27a90af5284d209a3f8479499e882ae6a7b99165400a3dee89ba0e","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T18:16:33.431688+00:00","source_markets":["b778a515-bf68-40eb-a1af-dc5d58908fb4"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}