{"bundle_id":"eaccd4d3-63fa-4c5f-aba5-bf750639ff64","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-20T03:21:27.622623+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"e5c2f87d-ae04-41bd-a0ac-7186de9abe62","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.115,"data_completeness":0.0312,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.5,"delta_7d":3.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":71.8632,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.125,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":319,"signal_score":1.5625,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"96531f0e-21ce-4981-833e-cbdac114436e","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-20T03:23:45.372292+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T03:16:56.883713+00:00","external_market_id":"3120760","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.115,"data_completeness":0.0312,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.5,"delta_7d":3.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":71.8632,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.125,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":319,"signal_score":1.5625,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-13T05:05:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-13T07:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-13T15:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-13T17:05:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-13T20:05:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-13T22:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-14T01:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-14T04:05:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-14T06:05:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-14T07:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-14T11:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-14T16:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-15T02:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-15T07:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-15T12:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-16T16:05:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-16T20:05:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-16T23:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-17T02:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-17T07:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-17T12:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-17T16:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-17T17:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-17T19:05:00+00:00",0.11],["2026-08-17T22:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-18T03:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-18T08:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-18T11:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-18T13:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-18T16:05:00+00:00",0.14],["2026-08-18T18:05:00+00:00",0.14],["2026-08-18T23:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-19T01:05:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-19T06:05:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-20T03:05:00+00:00",0.115]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-10-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"gapped","first_observed_at":"2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-20T03:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":28.0,"observation_count":119,"points_returned":37,"probability_range_percentage_points":6.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"96531f0e-21ce-4981-833e-cbdac114436e","title":"NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"ac1967e53da16895d42c3be54d9c2cb7065720dbf512fcd5b5c58bca150dfac6","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T03:16:56.883713+00:00","source_markets":["96531f0e-21ce-4981-833e-cbdac114436e"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}