{"bundle_id":"7043663a-0954-431a-b6d5-6a7a0475d3b6","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-11T11:20:26.068157+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"192d43a6-ded7-4268-8d1f-3d9375c07967","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.185,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-7.5,"delta_7d":-35.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":20.5295,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.2609,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":182,"signal_score":8.8804,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"bcd9708b-943d-4c9b-b8b1-fb26b2ec72a4","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-11T11:21:42.044672+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T11:16:32.012677+00:00","external_market_id":"3324625","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.185,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-7.5,"delta_7d":-35.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":20.5295,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.2609,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":182,"signal_score":8.8804,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-04T12:00:00+00:00",0.54],["2026-08-04T13:00:00+00:00",0.535],["2026-08-04T15:00:00+00:00",0.765],["2026-08-04T20:00:00+00:00",0.72],["2026-08-05T01:00:00+00:00",0.62],["2026-08-05T05:00:00+00:00",0.695],["2026-08-05T07:00:00+00:00",0.745],["2026-08-05T12:00:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-05T14:00:00+00:00",0.765],["2026-08-05T18:00:00+00:00",0.73],["2026-08-05T20:00:00+00:00",0.64],["2026-08-06T03:00:00+00:00",0.685],["2026-08-06T04:00:00+00:00",0.655],["2026-08-06T11:00:00+00:00",0.65],["2026-08-06T15:00:00+00:00",0.67],["2026-08-06T17:00:00+00:00",0.65],["2026-08-06T18:00:00+00:00",0.57],["2026-08-07T00:00:00+00:00",0.59],["2026-08-07T04:00:00+00:00",0.635],["2026-08-07T08:00:00+00:00",0.61],["2026-08-07T12:00:00+00:00",0.47],["2026-08-07T17:00:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-07T20:00:00+00:00",0.625],["2026-08-07T23:00:00+00:00",0.59],["2026-08-08T05:00:00+00:00",0.645],["2026-08-08T06:00:00+00:00",0.64],["2026-08-08T13:00:00+00:00",0.575],["2026-08-08T15:00:00+00:00",0.48],["2026-08-08T18:00:00+00:00",0.42],["2026-08-08T21:00:00+00:00",0.43],["2026-08-09T04:00:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-09T05:00:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-09T07:00:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-09T12:00:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-09T18:00:00+00:00",0.24],["2026-08-09T22:00:00+00:00",0.22],["2026-08-09T23:00:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-10T02:05:00+00:00",0.28],["2026-08-10T04:00:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-10T06:10:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-10T19:05:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-10T20:05:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-11T00:05:00+00:00",0.25],["2026-08-11T03:05:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-11T08:05:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00",0.185]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-04T12:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":174,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":58.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"bcd9708b-943d-4c9b-b8b1-fb26b2ec72a4","title":"US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"dc8d608bd9904880e21e727e7226384de17bd24bd851052b6fbe2d9a9b731d95","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T11:16:32.012677+00:00","source_markets":["bcd9708b-943d-4c9b-b8b1-fb26b2ec72a4"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}