{"bundle_id":"78ffd96f-4561-4fd9-b439-997e2a2a72b5","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-16T07:16:03.309743+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"5dc53f1e-23d9-4731-9ba2-7a851635c39c","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.315,"data_completeness":0.1076,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":5.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":136.698,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.0667,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":177,"signal_score":2.2834,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"af35d19c-0f3c-48be-bffe-cadf513148ff","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-16T07:21:01.218135+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-16T07:14:55.552604+00:00","external_market_id":"2364962","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.315,"data_completeness":0.1076,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":5.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":136.698,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.0667,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":177,"signal_score":2.2834,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-09T08:00:00+00:00",0.26],["2026-08-09T09:00:00+00:00",0.26],["2026-08-09T17:00:00+00:00",0.23],["2026-08-09T23:00:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-10T02:00:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-10T04:00:00+00:00",0.26],["2026-08-10T07:00:00+00:00",0.26],["2026-08-10T08:00:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-10T15:00:00+00:00",0.26],["2026-08-10T17:00:00+00:00",0.28],["2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",0.28],["2026-08-11T05:00:00+00:00",0.27],["2026-08-11T08:00:00+00:00",0.27],["2026-08-11T10:00:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-11T13:00:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-11T14:00:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-11T21:00:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-12T03:00:00+00:00",0.32],["2026-08-12T04:00:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-12T11:00:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-12T14:00:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-12T18:00:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-12T19:00:00+00:00",0.31],["2026-08-12T21:00:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-13T03:00:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-13T10:00:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-13T18:00:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-14T01:00:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-14T09:00:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-14T16:00:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-15T00:00:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-15T07:00:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-15T15:00:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-15T17:00:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-15T22:00:00+00:00",0.36],["2026-08-16T02:00:00+00:00",0.32],["2026-08-16T02:05:00+00:00",0.32],["2026-08-16T03:00:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-16T07:05:00+00:00",0.315]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-09T08:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-16T07:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":175,"points_returned":39,"probability_range_percentage_points":14.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"af35d19c-0f3c-48be-bffe-cadf513148ff","title":"Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"cb343feb6ec2e6ab2e6e47d3aabcd7eda711c29fe82a137bc2d17eac81775d1d","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-16T07:14:55.552604+00:00","source_markets":["af35d19c-0f3c-48be-bffe-cadf513148ff"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}