{"bundle_id":"62c08b8a-b27f-442b-9411-79d3288457e4","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-16T06:18:46.674491+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"9a5342d4-ead7-437e-956a-377494f5ad58","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.475,"data_completeness":0.0347,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":1.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":136.7401,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1111,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":198,"signal_score":1.0556,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"a9fc3f7b-2427-411d-8fa7-ceedfbe8c32e","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-16T06:20:27.991762+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-16T06:14:18.434854+00:00","external_market_id":"567688","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.475,"data_completeness":0.0347,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":1.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":136.7401,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1111,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":198,"signal_score":1.0556,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-09T07:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-09T08:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-09T13:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-09T18:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-09T23:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-10T04:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-10T09:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-10T15:00:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-10T20:00:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-11T01:00:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-11T06:00:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-11T10:00:00+00:00",0.44],["2026-08-11T11:00:00+00:00",0.435],["2026-08-11T16:00:00+00:00",0.435],["2026-08-11T17:00:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-11T22:00:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-12T03:00:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-12T08:00:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-12T09:00:00+00:00",0.43],["2026-08-12T13:00:00+00:00",0.43],["2026-08-12T16:00:00+00:00",0.42],["2026-08-12T18:00:00+00:00",0.42],["2026-08-12T20:00:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-12T23:00:00+00:00",0.42],["2026-08-13T01:00:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-13T04:10:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-13T09:10:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-13T14:10:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-14T00:10:00+00:00",0.44],["2026-08-15T21:10:00+00:00",0.485],["2026-08-16T00:10:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-16T06:05:00+00:00",0.475]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"gapped","first_observed_at":"2026-08-09T07:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-16T06:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":44.0,"observation_count":121,"points_returned":32,"probability_range_percentage_points":6.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"a9fc3f7b-2427-411d-8fa7-ceedfbe8c32e","title":"Netanyahu out by end of 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"192a552526ea2dd0d9ea823d4868a8e1f8ab234c17236fb3d6f2dc1f84e5c09a","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-16T06:14:18.434854+00:00","source_markets":["a9fc3f7b-2427-411d-8fa7-ceedfbe8c32e"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}