{"bundle_id":"9efe884f-803a-454f-ba61-788232cfaee0","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-14T14:17:23.727908+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"34af6081-2914-48c7-924d-e5ccf981b3aa","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.525,"data_completeness":0.0451,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.5,"delta_7d":1.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":3.0731,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.25,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":13,"signal_score":2.875,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"263edabb-4213-4446-af69-cb56e7e585b4","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-14T14:19:21.211538+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-14T14:14:43.054986+00:00","external_market_id":"3565498","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.525,"data_completeness":0.0451,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.5,"delta_7d":1.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":3.0731,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"persistence":0.25,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":13,"signal_score":2.875,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-14T02:10:00+00:00",0.51],["2026-08-14T03:10:00+00:00",0.51],["2026-08-14T04:10:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-14T05:10:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-14T06:05:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-14T07:10:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-14T08:05:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-14T09:05:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-14T10:05:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-14T11:05:00+00:00",0.5],["2026-08-14T12:10:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-14T13:10:00+00:00",0.525],["2026-08-14T14:05:00+00:00",0.525]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-17T16:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"insufficient_observations","first_observed_at":"2026-08-14T02:10:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-14T14:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":13,"points_returned":13,"probability_range_percentage_points":3.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":11.9},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"263edabb-4213-4446-af69-cb56e7e585b4","title":"Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"58f285800d2fffcb0bbd37d5d67f749e6c6f466d229ebdf6c30dc77b2d001647","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-14T14:14:43.054986+00:00","source_markets":["263edabb-4213-4446-af69-cb56e7e585b4"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}