{"bundle_id":"d4d35cff-0236-42ef-825d-e248508834de","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-15T05:18:08.689641+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"01dca840-2025-405a-9c7e-9aac1f9aecfa","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.867,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.8,"delta_7d":-4.55,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":138.2814,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.3478,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":202,"signal_score":3.2239,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"93d589d9-b657-4758-aced-bce0921c2fa4","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-15T05:20:21.344371+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T05:14:48.738125+00:00","external_market_id":"677366","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.867,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.8,"delta_7d":-4.55,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":138.2814,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3478,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":202,"signal_score":3.2239,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-08T06:00:00+00:00",0.9125],["2026-08-08T10:00:00+00:00",0.9185],["2026-08-08T13:00:00+00:00",0.9175],["2026-08-08T14:00:00+00:00",0.9185],["2026-08-08T20:00:00+00:00",0.918],["2026-08-08T22:00:00+00:00",0.918],["2026-08-09T04:00:00+00:00",0.9145],["2026-08-09T05:00:00+00:00",0.9145],["2026-08-09T09:00:00+00:00",0.9125],["2026-08-09T13:00:00+00:00",0.9125],["2026-08-09T20:00:00+00:00",0.9125],["2026-08-10T04:00:00+00:00",0.9125],["2026-08-10T08:00:00+00:00",0.914],["2026-08-10T11:00:00+00:00",0.914],["2026-08-10T12:00:00+00:00",0.9135],["2026-08-10T19:00:00+00:00",0.9135],["2026-08-11T02:00:00+00:00",0.9165],["2026-08-11T03:00:00+00:00",0.9165],["2026-08-11T06:00:00+00:00",0.9125],["2026-08-11T11:00:00+00:00",0.912],["2026-08-11T13:00:00+00:00",0.9145],["2026-08-11T18:00:00+00:00",0.914],["2026-08-12T01:00:00+00:00",0.9145],["2026-08-12T05:00:00+00:00",0.909],["2026-08-12T08:10:00+00:00",0.9125],["2026-08-12T13:00:00+00:00",0.9125],["2026-08-12T17:00:00+00:00",0.913],["2026-08-12T21:00:00+00:00",0.913],["2026-08-13T03:10:00+00:00",0.913],["2026-08-13T07:00:00+00:00",0.9075],["2026-08-13T08:00:00+00:00",0.9065],["2026-08-13T12:00:00+00:00",0.906],["2026-08-13T16:00:00+00:00",0.9055],["2026-08-13T22:00:00+00:00",0.9045],["2026-08-13T23:00:00+00:00",0.9045],["2026-08-14T02:00:00+00:00",0.882],["2026-08-14T09:10:00+00:00",0.882],["2026-08-14T11:05:00+00:00",0.8865],["2026-08-14T15:10:00+00:00",0.879],["2026-08-14T19:10:00+00:00",0.875],["2026-08-14T21:10:00+00:00",0.8735],["2026-08-14T22:10:00+00:00",0.863],["2026-08-15T05:05:00+00:00",0.867]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T12:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-08T06:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-15T05:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":176,"points_returned":43,"probability_range_percentage_points":5.55,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"93d589d9-b657-4758-aced-bce0921c2fa4","title":"Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"b51bbdeb084e0295e0963c21e7d6508edbb1cfe426fb8ffd1264f734f16b1079","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T05:14:48.738125+00:00","source_markets":["93d589d9-b657-4758-aced-bce0921c2fa4"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}