{"bundle_id":"66d50efd-a13c-476a-845a-92010c094401","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-16T22:18:21.118617+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"d0f98cac-55b8-480c-bb00-3073e123a110","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.305,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-9.5,"delta_7d":-28.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":15.0721,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.3913,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":283,"signal_score":10.9457,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"d1cdbd0b-665a-4105-b0f3-19fe92a5fa3e","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-16T22:20:11.177250+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-16T22:15:10.938739+00:00","external_market_id":"3348048","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.305,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-9.5,"delta_7d":-28.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":15.0721,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3913,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":283,"signal_score":10.9457,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-09T23:00:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-10T01:00:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-10T04:00:00+00:00",0.625],["2026-08-10T06:00:00+00:00",0.635],["2026-08-10T07:00:00+00:00",0.625],["2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00",0.66],["2026-08-10T17:05:00+00:00",0.6],["2026-08-10T19:05:00+00:00",0.575],["2026-08-10T23:05:00+00:00",0.61],["2026-08-11T01:05:00+00:00",0.595],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-11T09:05:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-11T14:05:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-11T17:05:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-11T20:05:00+00:00",0.635],["2026-08-11T22:05:00+00:00",0.61],["2026-08-12T01:05:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-12T05:05:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-12T07:05:00+00:00",0.59],["2026-08-12T12:05:00+00:00",0.57],["2026-08-12T15:05:00+00:00",0.53],["2026-08-12T21:05:00+00:00",0.535],["2026-08-12T23:05:00+00:00",0.56],["2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00",0.56],["2026-08-13T08:05:00+00:00",0.35],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-13T15:05:00+00:00",0.41],["2026-08-13T17:05:00+00:00",0.38],["2026-08-13T19:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-13T23:05:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-14T05:05:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-14T06:05:00+00:00",0.24],["2026-08-14T07:05:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-14T13:05:00+00:00",0.34],["2026-08-14T16:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-15T07:05:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-15T08:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-15T10:05:00+00:00",0.33],["2026-08-15T16:05:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-15T17:05:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-15T22:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-16T00:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-16T01:05:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-16T08:05:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-16T12:05:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-16T14:05:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-16T16:05:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-16T22:05:00+00:00",0.305]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-09T23:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-16T22:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":5.0,"observation_count":164,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":46.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"d1cdbd0b-665a-4105-b0f3-19fe92a5fa3e","title":"Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"5d86255cafcf9ff0ed5cd32b6799c8513b55938b84baac63042b4f17c8cfc17c","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-16T22:15:10.938739+00:00","source_markets":["d1cdbd0b-665a-4105-b0f3-19fe92a5fa3e"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}