{"bundle_id":"df64661f-714d-4688-b4ff-ca1cd58e8223","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-19T05:19:06.785756+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"801d2911-c2c5-4b18-9262-3fa205197e86","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.125,"data_completeness":0.0799,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":1.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":498.7809,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.0455,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":225,"signal_score":1.0228,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"191b85b6-2c54-4115-a01d-e15658a1f373","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-19T05:22:56.447238+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T05:15:33.494302+00:00","external_market_id":"1633611","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.125,"data_completeness":0.0799,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":1.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":498.7809,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.0455,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":225,"signal_score":1.0228,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-12T06:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-12T07:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-12T09:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-12T10:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-12T11:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-18T07:05:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-18T08:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-18T09:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-18T10:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-18T11:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-18T12:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-18T13:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-18T14:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-18T15:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-18T16:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-18T17:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-18T18:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-18T19:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-18T20:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-18T21:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-18T22:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-18T23:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-19T00:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-19T01:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-19T02:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-19T03:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-19T04:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-19T05:05:00+00:00",0.125]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2027-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"gapped","first_observed_at":"2026-08-12T06:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-19T05:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":140.0,"observation_count":29,"points_returned":29,"probability_range_percentage_points":2.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"191b85b6-2c54-4115-a01d-e15658a1f373","title":"Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"7a6a1b4fad8fc6f3be823de7704e5eb4d5458ecbbe3bf94456eb45f3cc53f7a5","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T05:15:33.494302+00:00","source_markets":["191b85b6-2c54-4115-a01d-e15658a1f373"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}