{"bundle_id":"5d19e7af-cf32-4d6b-9d8a-d4aa5ddd6de3","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-14T17:19:02.627359+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"a3268d4e-d112-4e27-92c4-ab9e44f103b2","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0185,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-0.8,"delta_7d":-11.65,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":16.2805,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.5217,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":297,"signal_score":2.3108,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"f86ebde5-e75e-4a25-99db-0c3c20f2c82e","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-14T17:20:13.199515+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-14T17:16:03.337667+00:00","external_market_id":"2774056","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0185,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-0.8,"delta_7d":-11.65,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":16.2805,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.5217,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":297,"signal_score":2.3108,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-07T18:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-07T19:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-07T21:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-08T02:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-08T09:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-08T13:00:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-08T16:00:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-08T21:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-09T00:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-09T05:00:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-09T07:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-09T13:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-09T19:05:00+00:00",0.045],["2026-08-09T20:05:00+00:00",0.045],["2026-08-10T02:05:00+00:00",0.0385],["2026-08-10T07:05:00+00:00",0.042],["2026-08-10T09:05:00+00:00",0.0395],["2026-08-10T12:05:00+00:00",0.0405],["2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00",0.0375],["2026-08-10T18:05:00+00:00",0.0345],["2026-08-10T19:05:00+00:00",0.0315],["2026-08-11T04:05:00+00:00",0.0355],["2026-08-11T07:05:00+00:00",0.0335],["2026-08-11T09:05:00+00:00",0.0355],["2026-08-11T14:05:00+00:00",0.054],["2026-08-11T16:05:00+00:00",0.0475],["2026-08-11T20:05:00+00:00",0.0385],["2026-08-12T00:05:00+00:00",0.0375],["2026-08-12T05:05:00+00:00",0.041],["2026-08-12T06:05:00+00:00",0.0415],["2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00",0.0365],["2026-08-12T14:05:00+00:00",0.0375],["2026-08-12T20:05:00+00:00",0.021],["2026-08-12T21:05:00+00:00",0.0185],["2026-08-13T02:05:00+00:00",0.0315],["2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00",0.0315],["2026-08-13T08:05:00+00:00",0.0275],["2026-08-13T11:05:00+00:00",0.0285],["2026-08-13T13:05:00+00:00",0.0245],["2026-08-13T19:05:00+00:00",0.0245],["2026-08-13T22:05:00+00:00",0.0235],["2026-08-14T04:05:00+00:00",0.0255],["2026-08-14T08:05:00+00:00",0.0195],["2026-08-14T09:05:00+00:00",0.0185],["2026-08-14T13:05:00+00:00",0.0155],["2026-08-14T17:05:00+00:00",0.0185]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-07T18:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-14T17:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":46,"probability_range_percentage_points":11.95,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"f86ebde5-e75e-4a25-99db-0c3c20f2c82e","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"54f2f28303bac10542f24d6a7dd2ba664a9b0e025b41cee4d96910d5ac8ff98b","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-14T17:16:03.337667+00:00","source_markets":["f86ebde5-e75e-4a25-99db-0c3c20f2c82e"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}