{"bundle_id":"e8e41925-d1a6-4b77-b8fb-2d3aafae62c0","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-16T14:18:43.662925+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"dbf17511-9d1e-4231-a325-47312aa21cc5","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.1965,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.8,"delta_7d":-3.7,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":44.406,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics","elections","\\b(?:election|president|prime minister|parliament|congress|senate|supreme court|government|regulation|law|referendum)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.5217,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":337,"signal_score":3.3109,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"69cddbdf-7b99-404e-bed4-fe225a0dc2a3","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-16T14:20:06.244525+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-16T14:15:18.487929+00:00","external_market_id":"1130016","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.1965,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.8,"delta_7d":-3.7,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":44.406,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics","elections","\\b(?:election|president|prime minister|parliament|congress|senate|supreme court|government|regulation|law|referendum)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"persistence":0.5217,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":337,"signal_score":3.3109,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-09T15:00:00+00:00",0.2335],["2026-08-09T17:00:00+00:00",0.2255],["2026-08-09T19:00:00+00:00",0.2325],["2026-08-09T20:00:00+00:00",0.2225],["2026-08-09T23:00:00+00:00",0.2395],["2026-08-09T23:05:00+00:00",0.2395],["2026-08-10T01:00:00+00:00",0.2405],["2026-08-10T03:05:00+00:00",0.2405],["2026-08-10T07:05:00+00:00",0.2395],["2026-08-10T12:05:00+00:00",0.2265],["2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00",0.2495],["2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-10T18:05:00+00:00",0.2715],["2026-08-11T00:05:00+00:00",0.2695],["2026-08-11T07:05:00+00:00",0.262],["2026-08-11T09:05:00+00:00",0.262],["2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00",0.2645],["2026-08-11T15:05:00+00:00",0.263],["2026-08-11T19:05:00+00:00",0.2335],["2026-08-11T23:05:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-12T03:05:00+00:00",0.2475],["2026-08-12T07:05:00+00:00",0.246],["2026-08-12T13:05:00+00:00",0.25],["2026-08-12T20:05:00+00:00",0.2315],["2026-08-12T21:05:00+00:00",0.258],["2026-08-12T23:05:00+00:00",0.2565],["2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00",0.247],["2026-08-13T12:05:00+00:00",0.2565],["2026-08-13T14:05:00+00:00",0.2405],["2026-08-13T17:05:00+00:00",0.2275],["2026-08-13T21:05:00+00:00",0.2565],["2026-08-13T23:05:00+00:00",0.228],["2026-08-14T04:05:00+00:00",0.199],["2026-08-14T06:05:00+00:00",0.2025],["2026-08-14T11:05:00+00:00",0.229],["2026-08-14T14:05:00+00:00",0.2255],["2026-08-14T15:05:00+00:00",0.193],["2026-08-14T22:05:00+00:00",0.201],["2026-08-15T00:05:00+00:00",0.197],["2026-08-15T06:05:00+00:00",0.2],["2026-08-15T12:05:00+00:00",0.1925],["2026-08-15T16:05:00+00:00",0.1775],["2026-08-15T21:05:00+00:00",0.184],["2026-08-15T22:05:00+00:00",0.1845],["2026-08-16T02:05:00+00:00",0.1935],["2026-08-16T06:05:00+00:00",0.1915],["2026-08-16T12:05:00+00:00",0.1975],["2026-08-16T14:05:00+00:00",0.1965]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-09T15:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-16T14:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":183,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":9.4,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"69cddbdf-7b99-404e-bed4-fe225a0dc2a3","title":"Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"d8b570a84a1227d0dad5bd321e0fa08c3ca1ed8a0e5d881ba390ccc48aaa4e38","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-16T14:15:18.487929+00:00","source_markets":["69cddbdf-7b99-404e-bed4-fe225a0dc2a3"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}