{"bundle_id":"efc2a49b-d6c8-4ec4-8bfd-b48ab882147d","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-13T21:18:09.066509+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"96edb288-8afd-437f-9c90-9e1482b0ba21","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.075,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-6.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":32.1142,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.2609,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":79,"signal_score":2.3805,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"32ea1443-d919-4395-bb33-98e4a6bcb4d3","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-13T21:19:14.271445+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-13T21:15:33.138376+00:00","external_market_id":"3501952","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.075,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-6.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":32.1142,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.2609,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":79,"signal_score":2.3805,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-11T10:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-11T11:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-11T13:00:00+00:00",0.14],["2026-08-11T14:00:00+00:00",0.15],["2026-08-11T16:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-11T16:10:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-11T18:00:00+00:00",0.1],["2026-08-11T18:10:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-11T19:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-11T20:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-11T21:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-11T23:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-12T01:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-12T02:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-12T04:10:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-12T06:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-12T07:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-12T09:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-12T11:10:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-12T14:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-12T17:05:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-12T18:10:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-12T20:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-12T21:05:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-12T22:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-13T00:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-13T02:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-13T07:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-13T09:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-13T11:10:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-13T14:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-13T16:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-13T17:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-13T18:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-13T21:05:00+00:00",0.075]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-11T10:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-13T21:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":79,"points_returned":37,"probability_range_percentage_points":8.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":59.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"32ea1443-d919-4395-bb33-98e4a6bcb4d3","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"9e63ecc16e916e907dfbc6ae63c955751927c2037c4af8691de00deded8e31f3","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-13T21:15:33.138376+00:00","source_markets":["32ea1443-d919-4395-bb33-98e4a6bcb4d3"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}