{"bundle_id":"2933753b-964e-44c1-882f-b26e66b2994a","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-20T12:20:33.095455+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"9e13dcd8-40d7-4143-8f66-45f41e262e00","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.9835,"data_completeness":0.0451,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":0.75,"delta_7d":50.85,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":11.4879,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","military-action"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.3333,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":242,"signal_score":2.1667,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"5670af7d-0ef3-4bcb-b413-4a8ac0f8c2dc","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-20T12:22:33.638486+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T12:16:26.294395+00:00","external_market_id":"3121262","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.9835,"data_completeness":0.0451,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":0.75,"delta_7d":50.85,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":11.4879,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","military-action"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3333,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":242,"signal_score":2.1667,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-13T13:00:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-13T14:00:00+00:00",0.44],["2026-08-13T18:00:00+00:00",0.415],["2026-08-13T20:00:00+00:00",0.415],["2026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-14T03:00:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-14T05:00:00+00:00",0.605],["2026-08-14T09:00:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-14T12:00:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-14T16:00:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-14T18:00:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-14T23:00:00+00:00",0.42],["2026-08-15T05:00:00+00:00",0.42],["2026-08-15T10:00:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-15T13:00:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-15T14:00:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-15T19:00:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-15T22:00:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-16T01:00:00+00:00",0.37],["2026-08-16T05:00:00+00:00",0.63],["2026-08-16T08:00:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-16T12:00:00+00:00",0.92],["2026-08-16T17:00:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-16T19:00:00+00:00",0.895],["2026-08-16T21:00:00+00:00",0.895],["2026-08-16T23:05:00+00:00",0.9835],["2026-08-17T05:05:00+00:00",0.9755],["2026-08-17T07:05:00+00:00",0.9105],["2026-08-17T12:05:00+00:00",0.941],["2026-08-17T15:05:00+00:00",0.9245],["2026-08-17T16:05:00+00:00",0.936],["2026-08-17T22:05:00+00:00",0.9155],["2026-08-17T23:05:00+00:00",0.9395],["2026-08-18T05:05:00+00:00",0.9675],["2026-08-18T07:05:00+00:00",0.966],["2026-08-18T11:05:00+00:00",0.943],["2026-08-18T13:05:00+00:00",0.9465],["2026-08-18T18:05:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-18T19:05:00+00:00",0.9285],["2026-08-19T00:05:00+00:00",0.899],["2026-08-19T04:05:00+00:00",0.9415],["2026-08-19T07:05:00+00:00",0.931],["2026-08-19T08:05:00+00:00",0.929],["2026-08-19T23:05:00+00:00",0.976],["2026-08-20T04:05:00+00:00",0.9695],["2026-08-20T09:05:00+00:00",0.984],["2026-08-20T12:05:00+00:00",0.9835]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-13T13:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-20T12:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":14.0,"observation_count":155,"points_returned":47,"probability_range_percentage_points":66.9,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"5670af7d-0ef3-4bcb-b413-4a8ac0f8c2dc","title":"NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"b4c27a8380f8f92fd4f08d2d7339956492494a2ab1875e9807c44e257fc668d0","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T12:16:26.294395+00:00","source_markets":["5670af7d-0ef3-4bcb-b413-4a8ac0f8c2dc"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}