{"bundle_id":"164f1c23-de37-4f54-a8ef-4e0b0bbe751f","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-19T10:18:21.637357+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"1850a962-6256-4159-b764-1eed3528e701","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.3,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-4.5,"delta_7d":-27.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":12.5725,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.4783,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":343,"signal_score":5.9891,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"d1cdbd0b-665a-4105-b0f3-19fe92a5fa3e","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-19T10:21:19.112224+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T10:14:32.398197+00:00","external_market_id":"3348048","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.3,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-4.5,"delta_7d":-27.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":12.5725,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.4783,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":343,"signal_score":5.9891,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-12T11:10:00+00:00",0.57],["2026-08-12T12:05:00+00:00",0.57],["2026-08-12T15:05:00+00:00",0.53],["2026-08-12T18:05:00+00:00",0.53],["2026-08-12T23:05:00+00:00",0.56],["2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00",0.56],["2026-08-13T07:05:00+00:00",0.395],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-13T13:05:00+00:00",0.395],["2026-08-13T15:05:00+00:00",0.41],["2026-08-13T19:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-13T22:05:00+00:00",0.36],["2026-08-14T02:05:00+00:00",0.32],["2026-08-14T06:05:00+00:00",0.24],["2026-08-14T07:05:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-14T12:05:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-14T16:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-15T07:05:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-15T08:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-15T09:05:00+00:00",0.33],["2026-08-15T15:05:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-15T17:05:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-15T22:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-15T23:05:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-16T01:05:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-16T06:05:00+00:00",0.36],["2026-08-16T07:05:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-16T12:05:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-16T14:05:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-16T20:05:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-17T01:05:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-17T02:05:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-17T06:05:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-17T09:05:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-17T14:05:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-17T18:05:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-17T20:05:00+00:00",0.28],["2026-08-17T23:05:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-18T01:05:00+00:00",0.29],["2026-08-18T06:05:00+00:00",0.29],["2026-08-18T11:05:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-18T13:05:00+00:00",0.32],["2026-08-18T17:05:00+00:00",0.23],["2026-08-18T20:05:00+00:00",0.25],["2026-08-19T02:05:00+00:00",0.23],["2026-08-19T07:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-19T09:05:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-19T10:05:00+00:00",0.3]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-12T11:10:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-19T10:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":5.0,"observation_count":161,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":37.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":166.9},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"d1cdbd0b-665a-4105-b0f3-19fe92a5fa3e","title":"Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"f38840db2ed7546b2c616139ab6a4809b922774078e047c8b1c991a3de0b1302","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T10:14:32.398197+00:00","source_markets":["d1cdbd0b-665a-4105-b0f3-19fe92a5fa3e"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}