{"bundle_id":"83df0152-5379-4559-944d-74bb74ca48bf","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-11T17:17:28.432243+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"1fe55ba7-ec4c-4d4e-b1bb-76ed7bdb35d6","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.305,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":5.0,"delta_7d":-19.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":20.2805,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.125,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":176,"signal_score":6.3125,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"676ec804-4e07-408f-8b13-93d7c3b1dad9","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-11T17:19:38.960263+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T17:15:01.556830+00:00","external_market_id":"2849356","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.305,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":5.0,"delta_7d":-19.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":20.2805,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.125,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":176,"signal_score":6.3125,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-04T18:00:00+00:00",0.5],["2026-08-04T22:00:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-05T01:00:00+00:00",0.55],["2026-08-05T02:00:00+00:00",0.55],["2026-08-05T07:00:00+00:00",0.71],["2026-08-05T09:00:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-05T13:00:00+00:00",0.615],["2026-08-05T17:00:00+00:00",0.635],["2026-08-05T19:00:00+00:00",0.73],["2026-08-06T03:00:00+00:00",0.665],["2026-08-06T06:00:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-06T07:00:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-06T11:00:00+00:00",0.755],["2026-08-06T15:00:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-06T17:00:00+00:00",0.655],["2026-08-06T22:00:00+00:00",0.665],["2026-08-07T00:00:00+00:00",0.58],["2026-08-07T05:00:00+00:00",0.595],["2026-08-07T11:00:00+00:00",0.545],["2026-08-07T13:00:00+00:00",0.58],["2026-08-07T16:00:00+00:00",0.52],["2026-08-07T20:00:00+00:00",0.64],["2026-08-07T21:00:00+00:00",0.63],["2026-08-08T03:00:00+00:00",0.64],["2026-08-08T10:00:00+00:00",0.615],["2026-08-08T11:00:00+00:00",0.645],["2026-08-08T17:00:00+00:00",0.52],["2026-08-08T18:00:00+00:00",0.51],["2026-08-09T00:00:00+00:00",0.385],["2026-08-09T02:00:00+00:00",0.395],["2026-08-09T03:00:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-09T09:00:00+00:00",0.35],["2026-08-09T12:00:00+00:00",0.39],["2026-08-09T14:00:00+00:00",0.39],["2026-08-09T20:00:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-09T21:00:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-10T05:00:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-10T11:00:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-10T12:00:00+00:00",0.26],["2026-08-10T17:00:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-10T19:00:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-11T03:00:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-11T05:00:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-11T10:00:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.385],["2026-08-11T17:05:00+00:00",0.305]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-04T18:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-11T17:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":171,"points_returned":47,"probability_range_percentage_points":51.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"676ec804-4e07-408f-8b13-93d7c3b1dad9","title":"US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"597a648f4bc9f05af8e93edc74aeb4c2665b96074f1664d2bc9d65be498751c5","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T17:15:01.556830+00:00","source_markets":["676ec804-4e07-408f-8b13-93d7c3b1dad9"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}