{"bundle_id":"babb3e4e-f4b3-433a-a8e1-bd000e3bf3d8","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-19T16:19:15.039379+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"6f57cb78-4ddb-45f4-bc3b-8e095c592437","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.2105,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.5,"delta_7d":2.95,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":810.3216,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics","elections"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.3913,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":349,"signal_score":3.9456,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"f240fd2e-6504-4504-9fff-cf464ccf6b7d","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-19T16:22:45.854382+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T16:16:53.397320+00:00","external_market_id":"559653","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.2105,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.5,"delta_7d":2.95,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":810.3216,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics","elections"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"persistence":0.3913,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":349,"signal_score":3.9456,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-12T17:10:00+00:00",0.181],["2026-08-12T19:10:00+00:00",0.1815],["2026-08-13T00:10:00+00:00",0.207],["2026-08-13T01:10:00+00:00",0.209],["2026-08-13T07:10:00+00:00",0.193],["2026-08-13T08:10:00+00:00",0.193],["2026-08-13T09:10:00+00:00",0.1905],["2026-08-13T15:10:00+00:00",0.1905],["2026-08-13T19:10:00+00:00",0.1875],["2026-08-13T22:05:00+00:00",0.1875],["2026-08-14T03:10:00+00:00",0.2155],["2026-08-14T06:10:00+00:00",0.227],["2026-08-14T12:10:00+00:00",0.217],["2026-08-14T15:10:00+00:00",0.2225],["2026-08-14T19:10:00+00:00",0.2075],["2026-08-14T20:10:00+00:00",0.2055],["2026-08-15T01:10:00+00:00",0.2015],["2026-08-15T03:10:00+00:00",0.2015],["2026-08-15T06:05:00+00:00",0.2005],["2026-08-15T10:10:00+00:00",0.2005],["2026-08-15T18:10:00+00:00",0.2005],["2026-08-16T01:10:00+00:00",0.2005],["2026-08-16T08:05:00+00:00",0.2005],["2026-08-16T16:10:00+00:00",0.2095],["2026-08-16T22:05:00+00:00",0.203],["2026-08-16T23:05:00+00:00",0.2045],["2026-08-17T06:05:00+00:00",0.2045],["2026-08-17T13:05:00+00:00",0.2045],["2026-08-17T17:05:00+00:00",0.212],["2026-08-17T20:10:00+00:00",0.2035],["2026-08-18T02:05:00+00:00",0.1815],["2026-08-18T03:05:00+00:00",0.1805],["2026-08-18T07:05:00+00:00",0.187],["2026-08-18T11:10:00+00:00",0.1855],["2026-08-18T18:10:00+00:00",0.1855],["2026-08-18T21:05:00+00:00",0.1995],["2026-08-19T01:10:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-19T07:05:00+00:00",0.1975],["2026-08-19T09:10:00+00:00",0.1965],["2026-08-19T13:05:00+00:00",0.211],["2026-08-19T16:10:00+00:00",0.2105]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-12T17:10:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-19T16:10:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":168,"points_returned":41,"probability_range_percentage_points":4.65,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"f240fd2e-6504-4504-9fff-cf464ccf6b7d","title":"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"7c7b2acf958604439c362c4c3e3bcf6192a20637855d3ca1340694528c3a8304","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T16:16:53.397320+00:00","source_markets":["f240fd2e-6504-4504-9fff-cf464ccf6b7d"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}