{"bundle_id":"2790ae12-3cba-4a68-8140-bab3d4ccbdec","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-19T11:21:02.693196+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"77d181d0-6671-455b-a41f-2019cd1671cd","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.059,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.05,"delta_7d":-0.35,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":133.5311,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","military-action"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.2174,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":222,"signal_score":1.1587,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"2fb5bc96-e2e0-42cf-ac24-203e3f40c58c","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-19T11:24:02.566759+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T11:15:11.280373+00:00","external_market_id":"2125383","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.059,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.05,"delta_7d":-0.35,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":133.5311,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","military-action"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.2174,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":222,"signal_score":1.1587,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00",0.0625],["2026-08-12T14:00:00+00:00",0.0615],["2026-08-12T18:00:00+00:00",0.064],["2026-08-12T19:00:00+00:00",0.0615],["2026-08-13T00:00:00+00:00",0.0645],["2026-08-13T01:00:00+00:00",0.064],["2026-08-13T07:00:00+00:00",0.0615],["2026-08-13T08:00:00+00:00",0.0575],["2026-08-13T13:00:00+00:00",0.0615],["2026-08-13T14:00:00+00:00",0.061],["2026-08-13T19:00:00+00:00",0.061],["2026-08-14T01:00:00+00:00",0.0615],["2026-08-14T04:00:00+00:00",0.061],["2026-08-14T07:00:00+00:00",0.061],["2026-08-14T14:00:00+00:00",0.061],["2026-08-14T20:00:00+00:00",0.061],["2026-08-14T22:00:00+00:00",0.0605],["2026-08-15T02:00:00+00:00",0.0605],["2026-08-15T05:00:00+00:00",0.074],["2026-08-15T08:00:00+00:00",0.074],["2026-08-15T14:00:00+00:00",0.074],["2026-08-15T20:00:00+00:00",0.074],["2026-08-16T02:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-16T03:00:00+00:00",0.0775],["2026-08-16T07:05:00+00:00",0.0755],["2026-08-16T14:05:00+00:00",0.0745],["2026-08-16T20:05:00+00:00",0.0745],["2026-08-16T23:05:00+00:00",0.074],["2026-08-17T02:05:00+00:00",0.074],["2026-08-17T08:05:00+00:00",0.074],["2026-08-18T15:05:00+00:00",0.0665],["2026-08-18T16:05:00+00:00",0.0665],["2026-08-18T17:05:00+00:00",0.0635],["2026-08-18T22:05:00+00:00",0.0635],["2026-08-19T04:05:00+00:00",0.0635],["2026-08-19T07:05:00+00:00",0.056],["2026-08-19T11:05:00+00:00",0.059]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"gapped","first_observed_at":"2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-19T11:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":27.0,"observation_count":143,"points_returned":37,"probability_range_percentage_points":2.15,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"2fb5bc96-e2e0-42cf-ac24-203e3f40c58c","title":"Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"1c2db2e85eca524ebb2ab74d34dc1f9870f184e3f5a3f20e31e98e71651b1c68","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T11:15:11.280373+00:00","source_markets":["2fb5bc96-e2e0-42cf-ac24-203e3f40c58c"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}