{"bundle_id":"5f041a24-d45f-48e9-ad9e-3e3a1dc6c6f1","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-18T13:17:41.536144+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"4ca6234a-b2a3-4066-aaba-aef73ff5a1ea","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.715,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.0,"delta_7d":5.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":42.4479,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics","elections","\\b(?:election|president|prime minister|parliament|congress|senate|supreme court|government|regulation|law|referendum)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.3043,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":389,"signal_score":3.4022,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"bddd46c1-c6c2-45ac-8b0a-855a0e2f9faf","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-18T13:21:17.938150+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T13:15:01.169051+00:00","external_market_id":"1130012","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.715,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.0,"delta_7d":5.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":42.4479,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics","elections","\\b(?:election|president|prime minister|parliament|congress|senate|supreme court|government|regulation|law|referendum)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"persistence":0.3043,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":389,"signal_score":3.4022,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-11T14:05:00+00:00",0.665],["2026-08-11T15:05:00+00:00",0.665],["2026-08-11T19:05:00+00:00",0.675],["2026-08-11T22:05:00+00:00",0.675],["2026-08-12T05:05:00+00:00",0.675],["2026-08-12T12:05:00+00:00",0.675],["2026-08-12T19:05:00+00:00",0.665],["2026-08-13T03:05:00+00:00",0.665],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.665],["2026-08-13T17:05:00+00:00",0.665],["2026-08-13T23:05:00+00:00",0.695],["2026-08-14T00:05:00+00:00",0.695],["2026-08-14T07:05:00+00:00",0.695],["2026-08-14T15:05:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-14T17:05:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-14T23:05:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-15T00:05:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-15T05:05:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-15T10:05:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-15T12:05:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-15T18:05:00+00:00",0.735],["2026-08-15T20:05:00+00:00",0.735],["2026-08-16T02:05:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-16T03:05:00+00:00",0.735],["2026-08-16T10:05:00+00:00",0.735],["2026-08-16T12:05:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-16T17:05:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-16T20:05:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-17T00:05:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-17T03:05:00+00:00",0.67],["2026-08-17T08:05:00+00:00",0.69],["2026-08-17T09:05:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-17T15:05:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-17T16:05:00+00:00",0.7],["2026-08-17T22:05:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-18T00:05:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-18T05:05:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-18T11:05:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-18T13:05:00+00:00",0.715]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-11T14:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-18T13:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":168,"points_returned":39,"probability_range_percentage_points":7.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"bddd46c1-c6c2-45ac-8b0a-855a0e2f9faf","title":"Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"2bc0c730a43c36d6dd16bea6e1eeeadbcc2c4376a146da3ffc8497f3344f0fef","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T13:15:01.169051+00:00","source_markets":["bddd46c1-c6c2-45ac-8b0a-855a0e2f9faf"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}