{"bundle_id":"7184dae4-5f4d-4f1f-a82e-b7f0f2ada68b","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-19T17:20:16.732275+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"11dd3a57-bd4e-4ab0-a7cc-9a369c3ef74b","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.9705,"data_completeness":0.1528,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":7.05,"delta_7d":25.55,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":3.2795,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","military-action","military","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.3256,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":46,"signal_score":8.4628,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"b264fd9e-059d-4d87-ba64-56eca3c40948","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-19T17:23:31.698961+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T17:16:34.752649+00:00","external_market_id":"3700192","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.9705,"data_completeness":0.1528,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":7.05,"delta_7d":25.55,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":3.2795,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","military-action","military","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3256,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":46,"signal_score":8.4628,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-18T16:00:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-18T17:00:00+00:00",0.83],["2026-08-18T18:00:00+00:00",0.9],["2026-08-18T19:00:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-18T20:00:00+00:00",0.935],["2026-08-18T21:00:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-18T21:05:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-18T22:00:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-18T22:05:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-18T23:00:00+00:00",0.945],["2026-08-18T23:10:00+00:00",0.945],["2026-08-19T00:00:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-19T00:05:00+00:00",0.95],["2026-08-19T01:00:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-19T01:10:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-19T02:00:00+00:00",0.964],["2026-08-19T02:10:00+00:00",0.964],["2026-08-19T03:00:00+00:00",0.963],["2026-08-19T03:05:00+00:00",0.9635],["2026-08-19T04:00:00+00:00",0.9615],["2026-08-19T04:10:00+00:00",0.9615],["2026-08-19T05:00:00+00:00",0.9615],["2026-08-19T05:05:00+00:00",0.9615],["2026-08-19T06:00:00+00:00",0.9605],["2026-08-19T06:05:00+00:00",0.9605],["2026-08-19T07:00:00+00:00",0.964],["2026-08-19T07:05:00+00:00",0.9635],["2026-08-19T08:00:00+00:00",0.9645],["2026-08-19T08:10:00+00:00",0.9645],["2026-08-19T09:00:00+00:00",0.9655],["2026-08-19T09:10:00+00:00",0.9655],["2026-08-19T10:00:00+00:00",0.9655],["2026-08-19T10:05:00+00:00",0.9655],["2026-08-19T11:00:00+00:00",0.9655],["2026-08-19T11:05:00+00:00",0.9655],["2026-08-19T12:00:00+00:00",0.965],["2026-08-19T12:10:00+00:00",0.965],["2026-08-19T13:00:00+00:00",0.9665],["2026-08-19T13:05:00+00:00",0.9665],["2026-08-19T14:00:00+00:00",0.9665],["2026-08-19T14:05:00+00:00",0.9665],["2026-08-19T15:00:00+00:00",0.9695],["2026-08-19T15:05:00+00:00",0.9685],["2026-08-19T16:00:00+00:00",0.9715],["2026-08-19T16:10:00+00:00",0.9695],["2026-08-19T17:10:00+00:00",0.9705]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-22T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-18T16:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-19T17:10:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":46,"points_returned":46,"probability_range_percentage_points":25.65,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":25.2},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"b264fd9e-059d-4d87-ba64-56eca3c40948","title":"US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"36ea66a62768a5fbe002a9e1dc53870ea902d660fb6d265621dce76460ab08da","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T17:16:34.752649+00:00","source_markets":["b264fd9e-059d-4d87-ba64-56eca3c40948"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}