{"bundle_id":"d1144b54-5274-4ff4-ab0a-f766f1ce3d97","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-15T10:20:38.673776+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"56166302-91e1-436b-801c-37de6dc494c6","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.6845,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":4.55,"delta_7d":39.55,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":46.5718,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.5652,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":305,"signal_score":6.0826,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-15T10:21:10.754032+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T10:15:39.675363+00:00","external_market_id":"2646914","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.6845,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":4.55,"delta_7d":39.55,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":46.5718,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.5652,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":305,"signal_score":6.0826,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-08T11:00:00+00:00",0.289],["2026-08-08T12:00:00+00:00",0.2895],["2026-08-08T18:00:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-08T19:00:00+00:00",0.3255],["2026-08-08T23:00:00+00:00",0.3455],["2026-08-09T03:00:00+00:00",0.3415],["2026-08-09T10:00:00+00:00",0.3585],["2026-08-09T11:00:00+00:00",0.3585],["2026-08-09T18:00:00+00:00",0.4405],["2026-08-09T18:05:00+00:00",0.4405],["2026-08-09T20:00:00+00:00",0.4895],["2026-08-09T22:00:00+00:00",0.4875],["2026-08-10T01:00:00+00:00",0.4915],["2026-08-10T03:00:00+00:00",0.4895],["2026-08-10T05:00:00+00:00",0.4835],["2026-08-10T06:00:00+00:00",0.4835],["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.444],["2026-08-10T13:05:00+00:00",0.446],["2026-08-10T18:05:00+00:00",0.48],["2026-08-10T21:05:00+00:00",0.478],["2026-08-11T00:05:00+00:00",0.4835],["2026-08-11T07:05:00+00:00",0.4825],["2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00",0.4985],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.4405],["2026-08-11T19:05:00+00:00",0.536],["2026-08-11T20:05:00+00:00",0.5475],["2026-08-11T23:05:00+00:00",0.5655],["2026-08-12T04:05:00+00:00",0.5485],["2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00",0.5365],["2026-08-12T11:05:00+00:00",0.537],["2026-08-12T17:05:00+00:00",0.554],["2026-08-12T19:05:00+00:00",0.5535],["2026-08-13T03:05:00+00:00",0.5535],["2026-08-13T09:05:00+00:00",0.571],["2026-08-13T12:10:00+00:00",0.558],["2026-08-13T17:05:00+00:00",0.5895],["2026-08-13T19:05:00+00:00",0.5895],["2026-08-14T01:05:00+00:00",0.6225],["2026-08-14T05:05:00+00:00",0.614],["2026-08-14T09:05:00+00:00",0.639],["2026-08-14T10:05:00+00:00",0.639],["2026-08-14T17:05:00+00:00",0.647],["2026-08-14T19:05:00+00:00",0.6635],["2026-08-14T23:05:00+00:00",0.7075],["2026-08-15T05:05:00+00:00",0.7035],["2026-08-15T09:05:00+00:00",0.6845],["2026-08-15T10:05:00+00:00",0.6845]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-08T11:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-15T10:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":181,"points_returned":47,"probability_range_percentage_points":41.85,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7","title":"Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"f785c3770449c0d26d578861f380dcd9bbe4932b80aa8095f441ba080218cf98","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T10:15:39.675363+00:00","source_markets":["046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}