{"bundle_id":"54040bc9-e728-44d7-8ac1-415d61e158e5","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-14T02:16:58.003860+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"475ce945-37e6-4a20-8536-c58ff8af88e6","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.4505,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.65,"delta_7d":1.3,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":815.9056,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics","elections"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":104,"signal_score":2.987,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"5e19736e-b39e-4759-8fdd-f59125660234","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-14T02:21:22.363879+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-14T02:15:53.387789+00:00","external_market_id":"561974","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.4505,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.65,"delta_7d":1.3,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":815.9056,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics","elections"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":104,"signal_score":2.987,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-09T09:05:00+00:00",0.4375],["2026-08-09T10:05:00+00:00",0.4375],["2026-08-09T14:10:00+00:00",0.4375],["2026-08-09T19:05:00+00:00",0.4385],["2026-08-09T22:05:00+00:00",0.4385],["2026-08-10T06:10:00+00:00",0.4395],["2026-08-10T09:05:00+00:00",0.4395],["2026-08-10T13:05:00+00:00",0.4395],["2026-08-10T18:05:00+00:00",0.4395],["2026-08-10T19:10:00+00:00",0.4425],["2026-08-10T22:10:00+00:00",0.4425],["2026-08-11T03:05:00+00:00",0.4425],["2026-08-11T06:05:00+00:00",0.4445],["2026-08-11T08:10:00+00:00",0.464],["2026-08-11T09:05:00+00:00",0.4535],["2026-08-11T11:10:00+00:00",0.4415],["2026-08-11T16:10:00+00:00",0.4415],["2026-08-11T20:10:00+00:00",0.4415],["2026-08-12T01:10:00+00:00",0.4415],["2026-08-12T05:10:00+00:00",0.4415],["2026-08-12T10:05:00+00:00",0.4415],["2026-08-12T14:10:00+00:00",0.4415],["2026-08-12T18:10:00+00:00",0.4415],["2026-08-12T23:10:00+00:00",0.4415],["2026-08-13T02:10:00+00:00",0.433],["2026-08-13T06:10:00+00:00",0.4335],["2026-08-13T07:10:00+00:00",0.435],["2026-08-13T08:10:00+00:00",0.433],["2026-08-13T10:10:00+00:00",0.4325],["2026-08-13T12:10:00+00:00",0.4325],["2026-08-13T14:10:00+00:00",0.4315],["2026-08-13T17:10:00+00:00",0.4495],["2026-08-13T18:10:00+00:00",0.4505],["2026-08-13T21:10:00+00:00",0.4505],["2026-08-14T02:10:00+00:00",0.4505]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-09T09:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-14T02:10:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":7.1,"observation_count":104,"points_returned":35,"probability_range_percentage_points":3.25,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":113.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"5e19736e-b39e-4759-8fdd-f59125660234","title":"Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"d0554f03fdb8e7c204f5506064e131b644c6734949824a1172f63eae1cc0eca8","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-14T02:15:53.387789+00:00","source_markets":["5e19736e-b39e-4759-8fdd-f59125660234"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}