{"bundle_id":"3d572972-8ed9-4b1f-b061-d8643f9ae7bd","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-18T19:17:24.353336+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"77bbfdd9-2a27-44f7-9736-b1bf383ef6ea","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0985,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.3,"delta_7d":-1.6,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":42.198,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.4167,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":171,"signal_score":3.7583,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"de00f3bb-07d4-411c-b452-08c480093d86","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-18T19:20:41.461872+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T19:14:56.303863+00:00","external_market_id":"2676762","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0985,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.3,"delta_7d":-1.6,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":42.198,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.4167,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":171,"signal_score":3.7583,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-11T20:00:00+00:00",0.1145],["2026-08-11T21:00:00+00:00",0.1145],["2026-08-12T03:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-12T04:00:00+00:00",0.1145],["2026-08-12T05:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-12T11:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-12T18:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-12T23:00:00+00:00",0.1195],["2026-08-13T05:00:00+00:00",0.118],["2026-08-13T08:00:00+00:00",0.1215],["2026-08-13T11:00:00+00:00",0.1225],["2026-08-13T15:00:00+00:00",0.12],["2026-08-13T16:00:00+00:00",0.12],["2026-08-13T20:00:00+00:00",0.1175],["2026-08-13T23:00:00+00:00",0.12],["2026-08-14T03:00:00+00:00",0.118],["2026-08-14T07:00:00+00:00",0.12],["2026-08-14T09:00:00+00:00",0.119],["2026-08-14T15:00:00+00:00",0.1175],["2026-08-14T18:00:00+00:00",0.119],["2026-08-14T21:00:00+00:00",0.12],["2026-08-15T00:00:00+00:00",0.123],["2026-08-15T04:00:00+00:00",0.12],["2026-08-15T06:00:00+00:00",0.118],["2026-08-15T13:00:00+00:00",0.1205],["2026-08-15T15:00:00+00:00",0.1165],["2026-08-15T19:00:00+00:00",0.119],["2026-08-15T21:00:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-16T05:00:00+00:00",0.123],["2026-08-16T08:00:00+00:00",0.12],["2026-08-16T11:00:00+00:00",0.123],["2026-08-16T15:00:00+00:00",0.1185],["2026-08-16T17:00:00+00:00",0.121],["2026-08-16T22:00:00+00:00",0.124],["2026-08-17T03:00:00+00:00",0.119],["2026-08-17T05:00:00+00:00",0.121],["2026-08-17T09:00:00+00:00",0.1295],["2026-08-17T10:00:00+00:00",0.1205],["2026-08-17T16:00:00+00:00",0.1305],["2026-08-17T20:00:00+00:00",0.1215],["2026-08-17T22:00:00+00:00",0.1215],["2026-08-18T02:00:00+00:00",0.0995],["2026-08-18T05:00:00+00:00",0.112],["2026-08-18T10:00:00+00:00",0.1055],["2026-08-18T12:00:00+00:00",0.109],["2026-08-18T17:00:00+00:00",0.0985],["2026-08-18T19:05:00+00:00",0.0985]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-11T20:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-18T19:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":47,"probability_range_percentage_points":3.2,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"de00f3bb-07d4-411c-b452-08c480093d86","title":"Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by September 30?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"18091c88fc7687a1f9ca9ecb2d3d941b4f8e45be08dcdd7b5317d0369dcb08dc","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T19:14:56.303863+00:00","source_markets":["de00f3bb-07d4-411c-b452-08c480093d86"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}