{"bundle_id":"c0581594-abd2-4d71-9e46-7b8a7f93c577","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-15T12:19:57.214930+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"e12023ab-388a-45e5-8f36-96917c8c1c1e","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.6875,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":4.65,"delta_7d":39.6,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":46.4881,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.6087,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":307,"signal_score":6.2043,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-15T12:20:21.598501+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T12:16:04.093406+00:00","external_market_id":"2646914","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.6875,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":4.65,"delta_7d":39.6,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":46.4881,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.6087,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":307,"signal_score":6.2043,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-08T13:00:00+00:00",0.2915],["2026-08-08T14:00:00+00:00",0.2915],["2026-08-08T20:00:00+00:00",0.326],["2026-08-08T22:00:00+00:00",0.3355],["2026-08-08T23:00:00+00:00",0.3455],["2026-08-09T05:00:00+00:00",0.3475],["2026-08-09T12:00:00+00:00",0.3985],["2026-08-09T13:00:00+00:00",0.408],["2026-08-09T19:00:00+00:00",0.4835],["2026-08-09T19:05:00+00:00",0.4835],["2026-08-09T20:00:00+00:00",0.4895],["2026-08-10T01:00:00+00:00",0.4915],["2026-08-10T02:00:00+00:00",0.4875],["2026-08-10T03:00:00+00:00",0.4895],["2026-08-10T05:00:00+00:00",0.4835],["2026-08-10T07:05:00+00:00",0.4835],["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.444],["2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00",0.4485],["2026-08-10T18:05:00+00:00",0.48],["2026-08-10T23:05:00+00:00",0.478],["2026-08-11T00:05:00+00:00",0.4835],["2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00",0.4985],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.4405],["2026-08-11T15:05:00+00:00",0.4545],["2026-08-11T21:05:00+00:00",0.5635],["2026-08-11T23:05:00+00:00",0.5655],["2026-08-12T04:05:00+00:00",0.5485],["2026-08-12T06:05:00+00:00",0.542],["2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00",0.5365],["2026-08-12T13:05:00+00:00",0.538],["2026-08-12T17:05:00+00:00",0.554],["2026-08-12T21:05:00+00:00",0.5535],["2026-08-13T05:05:00+00:00",0.5535],["2026-08-13T09:05:00+00:00",0.571],["2026-08-13T14:05:00+00:00",0.5675],["2026-08-13T17:05:00+00:00",0.5895],["2026-08-13T21:05:00+00:00",0.5895],["2026-08-14T03:05:00+00:00",0.627],["2026-08-14T05:05:00+00:00",0.614],["2026-08-14T09:05:00+00:00",0.639],["2026-08-14T13:05:00+00:00",0.641],["2026-08-14T18:05:00+00:00",0.6655],["2026-08-14T20:05:00+00:00",0.671],["2026-08-14T23:05:00+00:00",0.7075],["2026-08-15T05:05:00+00:00",0.7035],["2026-08-15T09:05:00+00:00",0.6845],["2026-08-15T12:05:00+00:00",0.6875]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-08T13:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-15T12:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":181,"points_returned":47,"probability_range_percentage_points":41.6,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7","title":"Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"f594283ee58dad77631f86b33ecc453503b02eb98f0dad0a786563fafe6709c2","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T12:16:04.093406+00:00","source_markets":["046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}