{"bundle_id":"0cc8d97a-8fcf-481e-a0b2-dc08bcbc36d5","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-11T23:17:16.114972+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"7611bf08-e29b-4254-a247-7e3e1eb54de6","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.79,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":7.0,"delta_7d":5.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":50.0307,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.3478,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":32,"signal_score":8.4239,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"024ce364-6874-4674-91db-b8e2bd3485b3","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-11T23:18:43.793779+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T23:14:50.694975+00:00","external_market_id":"3491474","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.79,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":7.0,"delta_7d":5.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":50.0307,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3478,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":32,"signal_score":8.4239,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00",0.735],["2026-08-10T17:05:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-10T18:05:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-10T19:10:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-10T20:10:00+00:00",0.71],["2026-08-10T21:10:00+00:00",0.72],["2026-08-10T22:10:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-10T23:10:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-11T00:10:00+00:00",0.72],["2026-08-11T01:10:00+00:00",0.675],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.675],["2026-08-11T03:05:00+00:00",0.68],["2026-08-11T04:10:00+00:00",0.68],["2026-08-11T05:05:00+00:00",0.68],["2026-08-11T06:05:00+00:00",0.68],["2026-08-11T07:05:00+00:00",0.68],["2026-08-11T08:10:00+00:00",0.68],["2026-08-11T09:05:00+00:00",0.68],["2026-08-11T10:05:00+00:00",0.685],["2026-08-11T11:10:00+00:00",0.77],["2026-08-11T12:05:00+00:00",0.77],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.78],["2026-08-11T14:10:00+00:00",0.77],["2026-08-11T15:10:00+00:00",0.765],["2026-08-11T16:05:00+00:00",0.765],["2026-08-11T17:05:00+00:00",0.77],["2026-08-11T18:05:00+00:00",0.775],["2026-08-11T19:05:00+00:00",0.78],["2026-08-11T20:10:00+00:00",0.79],["2026-08-11T21:05:00+00:00",0.79],["2026-08-11T22:05:00+00:00",0.79],["2026-08-11T23:05:00+00:00",0.79]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-11T23:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":32,"points_returned":32,"probability_range_percentage_points":11.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":31.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"024ce364-6874-4674-91db-b8e2bd3485b3","title":"Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"9ce6572a2e82b5a0b1638a81a05ce82dbebe04826cb9ffa82be991999148ef6c","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T23:14:50.694975+00:00","source_markets":["024ce364-6874-4674-91db-b8e2bd3485b3"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}