{"bundle_id":"1ab495f1-840b-4cbb-822d-7d56a1bc95bb","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-17T07:18:36.998855+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"bb11478d-66ae-4b77-8adc-b2ce45ee5f54","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.205,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-14.0,"delta_7d":-42.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":14.6975,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.3913,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":292,"signal_score":15.4456,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"d1cdbd0b-665a-4105-b0f3-19fe92a5fa3e","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-17T07:21:33.470449+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-17T07:14:39.010709+00:00","external_market_id":"3348048","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.205,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-14.0,"delta_7d":-42.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":14.6975,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3913,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":292,"signal_score":15.4456,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.63],["2026-08-10T10:05:00+00:00",0.625],["2026-08-10T14:05:00+00:00",0.655],["2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00",0.66],["2026-08-10T19:05:00+00:00",0.575],["2026-08-10T23:05:00+00:00",0.61],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-11T09:05:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00",0.59],["2026-08-11T12:05:00+00:00",0.605],["2026-08-11T14:05:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-11T19:05:00+00:00",0.685],["2026-08-12T01:05:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-12T02:05:00+00:00",0.56],["2026-08-12T07:05:00+00:00",0.59],["2026-08-12T09:05:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-12T15:05:00+00:00",0.53],["2026-08-12T16:05:00+00:00",0.53],["2026-08-12T19:05:00+00:00",0.54],["2026-08-12T23:05:00+00:00",0.56],["2026-08-13T01:05:00+00:00",0.55],["2026-08-13T06:05:00+00:00",0.52],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-13T14:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-13T15:05:00+00:00",0.41],["2026-08-13T20:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-14T01:05:00+00:00",0.33],["2026-08-14T03:05:00+00:00",0.33],["2026-08-14T06:05:00+00:00",0.24],["2026-08-14T11:05:00+00:00",0.31],["2026-08-14T14:05:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-14T16:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-14T23:05:00+00:00",0.34],["2026-08-15T07:05:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-15T12:05:00+00:00",0.37],["2026-08-15T17:05:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-15T19:05:00+00:00",0.385],["2026-08-15T20:05:00+00:00",0.43],["2026-08-16T01:05:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-16T06:05:00+00:00",0.36],["2026-08-16T07:05:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-16T10:05:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-16T12:05:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-16T17:05:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-16T18:05:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-17T02:05:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-17T06:05:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-17T07:05:00+00:00",0.205]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-17T07:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":5.0,"observation_count":161,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":50.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"d1cdbd0b-665a-4105-b0f3-19fe92a5fa3e","title":"Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"2eaf8addaaa1c0daee6f286eafc2df03ff63846aa9a1e5f4579f64ed5d653eea","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-17T07:14:39.010709+00:00","source_markets":["d1cdbd0b-665a-4105-b0f3-19fe92a5fa3e"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}