{"bundle_id":"76b5f287-a557-4cce-9454-525f5eee4fd8","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-13T20:17:11.975137+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"98950391-7643-4d55-8d22-bc8290616a69","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.935,"data_completeness":0.0278,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":16.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":18.1553,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.2857,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":198,"signal_score":1.1429,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"e6bf72e5-3f0a-4370-aae9-a928545cb5dc","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-13T20:19:14.879583+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-13T20:15:25.794517+00:00","external_market_id":"2952493","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.935,"data_completeness":0.0278,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":16.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":18.1553,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.2857,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":198,"signal_score":1.1429,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-06T21:00:00+00:00",0.775],["2026-08-06T22:00:00+00:00",0.775],["2026-08-07T00:00:00+00:00",0.785],["2026-08-07T01:00:00+00:00",0.785],["2026-08-07T03:00:00+00:00",0.775],["2026-08-07T05:00:00+00:00",0.78],["2026-08-07T06:00:00+00:00",0.785],["2026-08-07T09:00:00+00:00",0.785],["2026-08-07T13:00:00+00:00",0.79],["2026-08-07T14:00:00+00:00",0.795],["2026-08-07T17:00:00+00:00",0.795],["2026-08-07T20:00:00+00:00",0.8],["2026-08-07T21:00:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-08T01:00:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-08T04:00:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-08T06:00:00+00:00",0.825],["2026-08-08T08:00:00+00:00",0.825],["2026-08-08T09:00:00+00:00",0.835],["2026-08-08T12:00:00+00:00",0.835],["2026-08-08T14:00:00+00:00",0.845],["2026-08-08T16:00:00+00:00",0.845],["2026-08-08T19:00:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-08T20:00:00+00:00",0.805],["2026-08-08T21:00:00+00:00",0.8],["2026-08-09T00:00:00+00:00",0.835],["2026-08-09T04:00:00+00:00",0.835],["2026-08-09T05:00:00+00:00",0.855],["2026-08-09T08:00:00+00:00",0.855],["2026-08-09T10:05:00+00:00",0.855],["2026-08-09T14:05:00+00:00",0.855],["2026-08-09T18:05:00+00:00",0.855],["2026-08-09T23:05:00+00:00",0.83],["2026-08-10T01:05:00+00:00",0.865],["2026-08-10T02:05:00+00:00",0.865],["2026-08-10T03:05:00+00:00",0.855],["2026-08-10T06:05:00+00:00",0.855],["2026-08-13T13:05:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-13T16:05:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-13T19:05:00+00:00",0.93],["2026-08-13T20:05:00+00:00",0.935]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"gapped","first_observed_at":"2026-08-06T21:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-13T20:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":79.0,"observation_count":91,"points_returned":40,"probability_range_percentage_points":16.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"e6bf72e5-3f0a-4370-aae9-a928545cb5dc","title":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"c881c6815befcc897d96bb798e2ab9b1d56e28072397e2cf8b6246a49c01c5d0","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-13T20:15:25.794517+00:00","source_markets":["e6bf72e5-3f0a-4370-aae9-a928545cb5dc"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}