{"bundle_id":"9edcf84a-2de0-41c2-bb3e-525ab021043f","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-14T07:18:03.486421+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"762afdce-051b-4fb4-893f-d99839e71bcc","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.883,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.35,"delta_7d":-4.75,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":139.1968,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.2917,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":180,"signal_score":2.4958,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"93d589d9-b657-4758-aced-bce0921c2fa4","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-14T07:22:56.211553+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-14T07:16:35.045939+00:00","external_market_id":"677366","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.883,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.35,"delta_7d":-4.75,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":139.1968,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.2917,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":180,"signal_score":2.4958,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-07T08:00:00+00:00",0.9305],["2026-08-07T09:00:00+00:00",0.9305],["2026-08-07T10:00:00+00:00",0.931],["2026-08-07T16:00:00+00:00",0.931],["2026-08-07T22:00:00+00:00",0.91],["2026-08-08T00:00:00+00:00",0.91],["2026-08-08T06:00:00+00:00",0.9125],["2026-08-08T10:00:00+00:00",0.9185],["2026-08-08T13:00:00+00:00",0.9175],["2026-08-08T15:00:00+00:00",0.9185],["2026-08-08T20:00:00+00:00",0.918],["2026-08-08T22:00:00+00:00",0.918],["2026-08-09T04:00:00+00:00",0.9145],["2026-08-09T06:00:00+00:00",0.9145],["2026-08-09T09:00:00+00:00",0.9125],["2026-08-09T13:00:00+00:00",0.9125],["2026-08-09T21:00:00+00:00",0.9125],["2026-08-10T05:00:00+00:00",0.9125],["2026-08-10T08:00:00+00:00",0.914],["2026-08-10T12:00:00+00:00",0.9135],["2026-08-10T20:00:00+00:00",0.9135],["2026-08-11T02:00:00+00:00",0.9165],["2026-08-11T03:00:00+00:00",0.9165],["2026-08-11T06:00:00+00:00",0.9125],["2026-08-11T11:00:00+00:00",0.912],["2026-08-11T13:00:00+00:00",0.9145],["2026-08-11T18:00:00+00:00",0.914],["2026-08-12T01:00:00+00:00",0.9145],["2026-08-12T02:00:00+00:00",0.9145],["2026-08-12T05:00:00+00:00",0.909],["2026-08-12T09:00:00+00:00",0.9125],["2026-08-12T14:00:00+00:00",0.9125],["2026-08-12T17:00:00+00:00",0.913],["2026-08-12T22:00:00+00:00",0.913],["2026-08-13T03:10:00+00:00",0.913],["2026-08-13T08:00:00+00:00",0.9065],["2026-08-13T09:00:00+00:00",0.9065],["2026-08-13T12:00:00+00:00",0.906],["2026-08-13T16:00:00+00:00",0.9055],["2026-08-13T22:00:00+00:00",0.9045],["2026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00",0.9035],["2026-08-14T02:00:00+00:00",0.882],["2026-08-14T07:10:00+00:00",0.883]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T12:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-07T08:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-14T07:10:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":176,"points_returned":43,"probability_range_percentage_points":4.9,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.2},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"93d589d9-b657-4758-aced-bce0921c2fa4","title":"Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"265e0a2de84196dfc045d8e38544cc1f066893c49a779d07e919148f9fbe7455","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-14T07:16:35.045939+00:00","source_markets":["93d589d9-b657-4758-aced-bce0921c2fa4"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}