{"bundle_id":"faad9d1b-4bd8-4137-acd5-026d54c47325","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-14T20:18:51.248785+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"9a8cb7b0-3ad6-4b34-a215-4dca7ec8ea70","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.007,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.8,"delta_7d":-45.8,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":1.1551,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.4783,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":258,"signal_score":4.2892,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"368f4cd3-ec48-41f8-8e1c-32e7bdee2de3","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-14T20:19:23.318730+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-14T20:15:38.296989+00:00","external_market_id":"3324624","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.007,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.8,"delta_7d":-45.8,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":1.1551,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.4783,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":258,"signal_score":4.2892,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-07T21:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-07T23:00:00+00:00",0.51],["2026-08-08T04:00:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-08T06:00:00+00:00",0.485],["2026-08-08T08:00:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-08T12:00:00+00:00",0.38],["2026-08-08T16:00:00+00:00",0.28],["2026-08-08T19:00:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-08T22:00:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-09T03:00:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-09T09:00:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-09T12:05:00+00:00",0.15],["2026-08-09T14:05:00+00:00",0.1],["2026-08-09T16:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-09T20:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-10T00:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-10T01:10:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-10T07:05:00+00:00",0.09],["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-10T14:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-10T21:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-10T22:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-11T04:05:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00",0.04],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-11T14:05:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-11T20:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-12T01:05:00+00:00",0.1],["2026-08-12T02:05:00+00:00",0.1],["2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-12T11:10:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-12T16:05:00+00:00",0.05],["2026-08-12T17:05:00+00:00",0.035],["2026-08-12T19:05:00+00:00",0.051],["2026-08-13T03:05:00+00:00",0.043],["2026-08-13T05:05:00+00:00",0.04],["2026-08-13T07:05:00+00:00",0.039],["2026-08-13T11:05:00+00:00",0.035],["2026-08-13T18:05:00+00:00",0.037],["2026-08-13T21:05:00+00:00",0.035],["2026-08-13T23:05:00+00:00",0.0355],["2026-08-14T04:05:00+00:00",0.014],["2026-08-14T05:05:00+00:00",0.0075],["2026-08-14T11:05:00+00:00",0.0055],["2026-08-14T13:05:00+00:00",0.004],["2026-08-14T19:05:00+00:00",0.0075],["2026-08-14T20:05:00+00:00",0.007]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-15T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-07T21:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-14T20:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":50.6,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"368f4cd3-ec48-41f8-8e1c-32e7bdee2de3","title":"US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"b6946464eb7fdd6d11289b13e7626e5157098fedc6d667aaa6384967455f03c0","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-14T20:15:38.296989+00:00","source_markets":["368f4cd3-ec48-41f8-8e1c-32e7bdee2de3"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}