{"bundle_id":"1ffa871b-188f-47e0-9cb1-2189f99bd0da","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-18T02:20:24.326713+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"51ea0feb-1c9c-4e5d-9f2d-be74a76310f5","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.6915,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":0.55,"delta_7d":20.85,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":43.9055,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.3913,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":369,"signal_score":1.9956,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-18T02:21:31.105001+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T02:15:07.871478+00:00","external_market_id":"2646914","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.6915,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":0.55,"delta_7d":20.85,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":43.9055,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3913,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":369,"signal_score":1.9956,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-11T03:05:00+00:00",0.483],["2026-08-11T07:05:00+00:00",0.4825],["2026-08-11T10:05:00+00:00",0.498],["2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00",0.4985],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.4405],["2026-08-11T18:05:00+00:00",0.484],["2026-08-11T23:05:00+00:00",0.5655],["2026-08-12T01:05:00+00:00",0.5655],["2026-08-12T07:05:00+00:00",0.5375],["2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00",0.5365],["2026-08-12T15:05:00+00:00",0.544],["2026-08-12T16:05:00+00:00",0.5465],["2026-08-12T17:05:00+00:00",0.554],["2026-08-12T23:05:00+00:00",0.5535],["2026-08-13T06:05:00+00:00",0.5535],["2026-08-13T09:05:00+00:00",0.571],["2026-08-13T14:05:00+00:00",0.5675],["2026-08-13T17:05:00+00:00",0.5895],["2026-08-13T20:05:00+00:00",0.5895],["2026-08-14T03:05:00+00:00",0.627],["2026-08-14T05:05:00+00:00",0.614],["2026-08-14T09:05:00+00:00",0.639],["2026-08-14T11:05:00+00:00",0.639],["2026-08-14T17:05:00+00:00",0.647],["2026-08-14T19:05:00+00:00",0.6635],["2026-08-14T23:05:00+00:00",0.7075],["2026-08-15T01:05:00+00:00",0.7005],["2026-08-15T05:05:00+00:00",0.7035],["2026-08-15T12:05:00+00:00",0.6875],["2026-08-15T14:05:00+00:00",0.6785],["2026-08-15T18:05:00+00:00",0.679],["2026-08-15T21:05:00+00:00",0.6735],["2026-08-15T23:05:00+00:00",0.6715],["2026-08-16T05:05:00+00:00",0.6695],["2026-08-16T06:05:00+00:00",0.669],["2026-08-16T08:05:00+00:00",0.6685],["2026-08-16T13:05:00+00:00",0.6675],["2026-08-16T19:05:00+00:00",0.6865],["2026-08-16T22:05:00+00:00",0.6905],["2026-08-16T23:05:00+00:00",0.682],["2026-08-17T04:05:00+00:00",0.69],["2026-08-17T05:05:00+00:00",0.6945],["2026-08-17T11:05:00+00:00",0.6825],["2026-08-17T17:05:00+00:00",0.6915],["2026-08-17T18:05:00+00:00",0.6895],["2026-08-17T19:05:00+00:00",0.693],["2026-08-18T02:05:00+00:00",0.6915]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-11T03:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-18T02:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":168,"points_returned":47,"probability_range_percentage_points":26.7,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7","title":"Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"be30fa6f87a28b364d00486c30a609cf7b3d1be34a8eae54e168cc1c676aea41","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T02:15:07.871478+00:00","source_markets":["046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}