{"bundle_id":"606161fd-e9b7-4a5e-80a2-d60dc43ad58c","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-12T08:18:47.578744+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"5c11ed92-6754-4c74-a691-90ade88a9f5c","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.575,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":41.0,"delta_7d":44.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":141.3645,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.3333,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":176,"signal_score":42.4166,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"8ba5e57d-eb42-4d48-a617-dab0625ad7d0","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-12T08:20:10.040177+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-12T08:15:06.844619+00:00","external_market_id":"2412367","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.575,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":41.0,"delta_7d":44.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":141.3645,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3333,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":176,"signal_score":42.4166,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-05T09:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-05T10:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-05T17:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-06T07:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-06T15:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-06T22:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-07T05:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-07T12:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-07T20:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-08T03:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-08T07:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-08T10:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-08T17:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-09T01:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-09T08:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-09T15:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-09T22:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-10T06:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-10T08:00:00+00:00",0.15],["2026-08-10T13:00:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-10T18:00:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-10T20:00:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-11T03:00:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-11T16:00:00+00:00",0.15],["2026-08-11T17:00:00+00:00",0.45],["2026-08-11T23:00:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-12T01:00:00+00:00",0.48],["2026-08-12T04:05:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00",0.575]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T17:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-05T09:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":31,"probability_range_percentage_points":60.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"8ba5e57d-eb42-4d48-a617-dab0625ad7d0","title":"Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"e5ee3501ebbc3c517b678847e9c18cabc6c8e8207acdfa1882911aa9ec84c685","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-12T08:15:06.844619+00:00","source_markets":["8ba5e57d-eb42-4d48-a617-dab0625ad7d0"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}