{"bundle_id":"ce5a9d48-1fa9-4151-ad3b-a51811ec3b7f","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-19T07:17:12.851666+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"aaf63281-973e-41ee-9528-67d57ac47ba6","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.205,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":3.0,"delta_7d":-11.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":41.6977,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.4167,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":183,"signal_score":4.4584,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"edb3e396-2b73-40f3-a863-49b071f4f25f","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-19T07:22:25.937925+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T07:15:17.405759+00:00","external_market_id":"2677019","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.205,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":3.0,"delta_7d":-11.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":41.6977,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.4167,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":183,"signal_score":4.4584,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-12T08:00:00+00:00",0.32],["2026-08-12T09:00:00+00:00",0.32],["2026-08-12T13:00:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-12T16:00:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-12T21:00:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-12T23:00:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-13T03:00:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-13T06:00:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-13T14:00:00+00:00",0.3],["2026-08-13T19:00:00+00:00",0.29],["2026-08-14T02:00:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-14T03:00:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-14T04:00:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-14T11:00:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-14T19:00:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-15T02:00:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-15T09:00:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-15T16:00:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-16T00:00:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-16T07:00:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-16T14:00:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-16T21:00:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-17T01:00:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-17T05:00:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-17T12:00:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-17T17:00:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-17T19:00:00+00:00",0.24],["2026-08-18T02:00:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-18T06:00:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-18T10:00:00+00:00",0.16],["2026-08-18T14:00:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-18T17:00:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-18T19:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-18T23:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-19T02:05:00+00:00",0.2],["2026-08-19T07:05:00+00:00",0.205]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-12T08:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-19T07:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":36,"probability_range_percentage_points":16.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"edb3e396-2b73-40f3-a863-49b071f4f25f","title":"Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"1d3c716e7c521e05ae753b1b80e1fbaaea0013d4bb4b1a31c5b7dae582dd2da5","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T07:15:17.405759+00:00","source_markets":["edb3e396-2b73-40f3-a863-49b071f4f25f"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}