{"bundle_id":"b934a2b4-56ae-4b03-8cba-c53ad61f7121","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-17T09:18:13.442603+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"bff51a91-e3c3-44d0-9aa2-f28a7d0ecbb5","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.929,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":15.4,"delta_7d":58.4,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":14.6138,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","military-action"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.5833,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":181,"signal_score":16.9417,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"5670af7d-0ef3-4bcb-b413-4a8ac0f8c2dc","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-17T09:22:02.284017+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-17T09:15:09.450789+00:00","external_market_id":"3121262","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.929,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":15.4,"delta_7d":58.4,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":14.6138,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","military-action"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.5833,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":181,"signal_score":16.9417,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-10T10:00:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-10T11:00:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-10T17:00:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-10T20:00:00+00:00",0.3],["2026-08-10T23:00:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-11T01:00:00+00:00",0.29],["2026-08-11T03:00:00+00:00",0.28],["2026-08-11T08:00:00+00:00",0.28],["2026-08-11T11:00:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-11T16:00:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-11T18:00:00+00:00",0.62],["2026-08-11T23:00:00+00:00",0.59],["2026-08-12T05:00:00+00:00",0.46],["2026-08-12T06:00:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00",0.405],["2026-08-12T13:00:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-12T14:00:00+00:00",0.415],["2026-08-12T21:00:00+00:00",0.39],["2026-08-13T03:00:00+00:00",0.41],["2026-08-13T05:00:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-13T09:00:00+00:00",0.51],["2026-08-13T11:00:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-13T17:00:00+00:00",0.42],["2026-08-13T18:00:00+00:00",0.415],["2026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-14T03:00:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-14T05:00:00+00:00",0.605],["2026-08-14T09:00:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-14T12:00:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-14T16:00:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-14T18:00:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-14T23:00:00+00:00",0.42],["2026-08-15T07:00:00+00:00",0.42],["2026-08-15T10:00:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-15T14:00:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-15T15:00:00+00:00",0.36],["2026-08-15T21:00:00+00:00",0.36],["2026-08-16T03:00:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-16T04:00:00+00:00",0.58],["2026-08-16T09:00:00+00:00",0.845],["2026-08-16T13:00:00+00:00",0.875],["2026-08-16T17:00:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-16T19:00:00+00:00",0.895],["2026-08-16T23:05:00+00:00",0.9835],["2026-08-17T05:05:00+00:00",0.9755],["2026-08-17T07:05:00+00:00",0.9105],["2026-08-17T09:05:00+00:00",0.929]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-10T10:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-17T09:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":47,"probability_range_percentage_points":70.35,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"5670af7d-0ef3-4bcb-b413-4a8ac0f8c2dc","title":"NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"2a9703c248d2dc26abbcda6864d4aff61a3a6fcc25b1a125f9288302baed01e5","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-17T09:15:09.450789+00:00","source_markets":["5670af7d-0ef3-4bcb-b413-4a8ac0f8c2dc"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}