{"bundle_id":"fadc9c80-6901-4e59-a44e-8a9131e46866","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-13T21:17:04.855112+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"64d135e2-8d57-4337-9c23-440d1418b559","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.105,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-6.5,"delta_7d":-8.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":109.1135,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.4783,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":78,"signal_score":7.9892,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"22069a8e-7b15-4d2f-a650-53b302bcf7bf","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-13T21:19:05.163605+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-13T21:15:33.138376+00:00","external_market_id":"3491438","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.105,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-6.5,"delta_7d":-8.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":109.1135,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.4783,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":78,"signal_score":7.9892,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-10T17:05:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-10T18:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-10T20:10:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-10T23:10:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.18],["2026-08-11T03:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-11T06:05:00+00:00",0.18],["2026-08-11T09:05:00+00:00",0.17],["2026-08-11T10:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-11T12:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-11T16:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-11T19:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-11T22:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-12T00:05:00+00:00",0.17],["2026-08-12T02:05:00+00:00",0.17],["2026-08-12T05:05:00+00:00",0.17],["2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00",0.17],["2026-08-12T11:10:00+00:00",0.17],["2026-08-12T15:05:00+00:00",0.17],["2026-08-12T18:10:00+00:00",0.17],["2026-08-12T19:05:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-12T21:05:00+00:00",0.17],["2026-08-12T23:05:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-13T01:10:00+00:00",0.17],["2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-13T07:05:00+00:00",0.17],["2026-08-13T08:05:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-13T11:10:00+00:00",0.17],["2026-08-13T12:10:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-13T14:05:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-13T15:05:00+00:00",0.17],["2026-08-13T17:05:00+00:00",0.17],["2026-08-13T20:05:00+00:00",0.11],["2026-08-13T21:05:00+00:00",0.105]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-11-30T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-13T21:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":78,"points_returned":35,"probability_range_percentage_points":12.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":77.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"22069a8e-7b15-4d2f-a650-53b302bcf7bf","title":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"d15f15c208afb0ff8cc84508e6745463cacb091b51d2ee84ba0ed251a9ee0e46","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-13T21:15:33.138376+00:00","source_markets":["22069a8e-7b15-4d2f-a650-53b302bcf7bf"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}