{"bundle_id":"96d79095-9250-4a6e-85f5-168c376d223e","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-17T05:20:26.209071+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"289c3bac-670d-4428-a6f2-a67e5b9dc469","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.215,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-14.5,"delta_7d":-42.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":14.7797,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.3913,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":290,"signal_score":15.9456,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"d1cdbd0b-665a-4105-b0f3-19fe92a5fa3e","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-17T05:22:45.332652+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-17T05:16:10.120525+00:00","external_market_id":"3348048","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.215,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-14.5,"delta_7d":-42.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":14.7797,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3913,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":290,"signal_score":15.9456,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-10T06:00:00+00:00",0.635],["2026-08-10T07:00:00+00:00",0.625],["2026-08-10T11:05:00+00:00",0.65],["2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00",0.66],["2026-08-10T18:05:00+00:00",0.59],["2026-08-10T19:05:00+00:00",0.575],["2026-08-10T23:05:00+00:00",0.61],["2026-08-11T05:05:00+00:00",0.58],["2026-08-11T08:05:00+00:00",0.56],["2026-08-11T09:05:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-11T14:05:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-11T17:05:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-11T22:05:00+00:00",0.61],["2026-08-11T23:05:00+00:00",0.59],["2026-08-12T01:05:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-12T07:05:00+00:00",0.59],["2026-08-12T11:10:00+00:00",0.57],["2026-08-12T13:05:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-12T15:05:00+00:00",0.53],["2026-08-12T21:05:00+00:00",0.535],["2026-08-12T23:05:00+00:00",0.56],["2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00",0.56],["2026-08-13T08:05:00+00:00",0.35],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-13T15:05:00+00:00",0.41],["2026-08-13T17:05:00+00:00",0.38],["2026-08-13T23:05:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-14T00:10:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-14T06:05:00+00:00",0.24],["2026-08-14T11:05:00+00:00",0.31],["2026-08-14T13:05:00+00:00",0.34],["2026-08-14T16:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-14T23:05:00+00:00",0.34],["2026-08-15T07:05:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-15T08:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-15T11:05:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-15T17:05:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-15T20:05:00+00:00",0.43],["2026-08-15T22:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-16T01:05:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-16T06:05:00+00:00",0.36],["2026-08-16T08:05:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-16T12:05:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-16T16:05:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-16T18:05:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-16T22:05:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-17T03:05:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-17T05:05:00+00:00",0.215]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-10T06:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-17T05:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":5.0,"observation_count":163,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":49.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"d1cdbd0b-665a-4105-b0f3-19fe92a5fa3e","title":"Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"eb5fc37da25027fc21bcfb21ffb241d2f8ce50a480f9ef8aa6d91bbe3a4438e5","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-17T05:16:10.120525+00:00","source_markets":["d1cdbd0b-665a-4105-b0f3-19fe92a5fa3e"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}