{"bundle_id":"76b693ac-3987-48ad-919e-6c1b5dab7afe","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-11T14:19:20.876085+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"eda7d3f2-d980-4137-8c32-8a08a249f1c8","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.285,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":20.5,"delta_7d":-33.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":4.405,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":180,"signal_score":21.8369,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"368f4cd3-ec48-41f8-8e1c-32e7bdee2de3","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-11T14:19:47.926837+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T14:15:49.004325+00:00","external_market_id":"3324624","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.285,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":20.5,"delta_7d":-33.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":4.405,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":180,"signal_score":21.8369,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-04T15:00:00+00:00",0.615],["2026-08-04T16:00:00+00:00",0.625],["2026-08-04T22:00:00+00:00",0.535],["2026-08-04T23:00:00+00:00",0.545],["2026-08-05T04:00:00+00:00",0.66],["2026-08-05T07:00:00+00:00",0.685],["2026-08-05T10:00:00+00:00",0.61],["2026-08-05T15:00:00+00:00",0.695],["2026-08-05T19:00:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-05T21:00:00+00:00",0.595],["2026-08-06T03:00:00+00:00",0.48],["2026-08-06T05:00:00+00:00",0.41],["2026-08-06T07:00:00+00:00",0.46],["2026-08-06T12:00:00+00:00",0.405],["2026-08-06T16:00:00+00:00",0.51],["2026-08-06T19:00:00+00:00",0.435],["2026-08-06T20:00:00+00:00",0.385],["2026-08-07T02:00:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-07T04:00:00+00:00",0.51],["2026-08-07T09:00:00+00:00",0.45],["2026-08-07T10:00:00+00:00",0.395],["2026-08-07T17:00:00+00:00",0.38],["2026-08-07T22:00:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-07T23:00:00+00:00",0.51],["2026-08-08T04:00:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-08T10:00:00+00:00",0.485],["2026-08-08T13:00:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-08T15:00:00+00:00",0.36],["2026-08-08T20:00:00+00:00",0.27],["2026-08-08T22:00:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-09T03:00:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-09T04:00:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-09T09:00:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-09T12:05:00+00:00",0.15],["2026-08-09T17:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-09T20:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-09T23:05:00+00:00",0.09],["2026-08-10T01:10:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-10T04:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-10T18:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-10T22:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-10T23:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-11T00:05:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00",0.04],["2026-08-11T12:05:00+00:00",0.12],["2026-08-11T14:05:00+00:00",0.285]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-15T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-04T15:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-11T14:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":65.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"368f4cd3-ec48-41f8-8e1c-32e7bdee2de3","title":"US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"67d493179bc0a8eddd7823edbe2ed77d17e4f4525caee1351498002aaab00ad7","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T14:15:49.004325+00:00","source_markets":["368f4cd3-ec48-41f8-8e1c-32e7bdee2de3"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}