{"bundle_id":"eccd0e6f-7bd0-4de8-a97f-dfabe1ffa5c7","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-12T17:17:08.811379+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"cc8914a5-2002-46a9-9fe0-2e366df8aad6","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.185,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":4.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":140.2806,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.0435,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":249,"signal_score":1.0218,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"b2799aaf-0270-4022-aa92-59013e1380a1","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-12T17:20:12.456784+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-12T17:15:59.508874+00:00","external_market_id":"665374","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.185,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":4.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":140.2806,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.0435,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":249,"signal_score":1.0218,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-05T18:00:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-05T19:00:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-06T02:00:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-06T09:00:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-06T11:00:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-06T16:00:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-06T18:00:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-07T00:00:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-07T01:00:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-07T07:00:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-07T08:00:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-07T14:00:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-07T21:00:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-07T22:00:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-08T05:00:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-08T12:00:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-08T19:00:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-08T21:00:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-09T02:00:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-09T09:05:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-09T16:10:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-09T23:05:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-10T06:10:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-10T12:05:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-10T14:05:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-10T21:10:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-11T04:10:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-11T08:10:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-11T11:10:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-11T19:10:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-12T02:10:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-12T03:10:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-12T09:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-12T17:10:00+00:00",0.185]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-05T18:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-12T17:10:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":34,"probability_range_percentage_points":4.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.2},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"b2799aaf-0270-4022-aa92-59013e1380a1","title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"d6147b0dfee21581e11d3af74b5cc3fcfbebcc70583abc0443a8df2e1ffe1162","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-12T17:15:59.508874+00:00","source_markets":["b2799aaf-0270-4022-aa92-59013e1380a1"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}