{"bundle_id":"d9be6989-170e-45fa-83e9-36d8a0a6780d","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-15T20:17:39.293785+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"2861dcc3-49fd-4522-9da6-ae57185dd325","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.795,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.35,"delta_7d":-13.4,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":138.1556,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.4348,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":324,"signal_score":2.8174,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"9b7188c9-3a4f-4663-a425-dc41d05b7904","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-15T20:18:43.639104+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T20:14:58.458298+00:00","external_market_id":"3128886","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.795,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.35,"delta_7d":-13.4,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":138.1556,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.4348,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":324,"signal_score":2.8174,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-08T21:00:00+00:00",0.929],["2026-08-08T23:00:00+00:00",0.9305],["2026-08-09T04:00:00+00:00",0.914],["2026-08-09T06:00:00+00:00",0.9225],["2026-08-09T10:00:00+00:00",0.8665],["2026-08-09T11:05:00+00:00",0.8665],["2026-08-09T12:05:00+00:00",0.783],["2026-08-09T21:05:00+00:00",0.8615],["2026-08-10T00:05:00+00:00",0.8465],["2026-08-10T02:05:00+00:00",0.83],["2026-08-10T07:05:00+00:00",0.84],["2026-08-10T09:05:00+00:00",0.843],["2026-08-10T12:05:00+00:00",0.82],["2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00",0.823],["2026-08-10T22:05:00+00:00",0.783],["2026-08-10T23:05:00+00:00",0.783],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.791],["2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00",0.776],["2026-08-11T12:05:00+00:00",0.8115],["2026-08-11T16:05:00+00:00",0.7975],["2026-08-11T20:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-11T23:05:00+00:00",0.812],["2026-08-12T01:05:00+00:00",0.8],["2026-08-12T06:05:00+00:00",0.7985],["2026-08-12T10:05:00+00:00",0.8225],["2026-08-12T12:05:00+00:00",0.8445],["2026-08-12T16:05:00+00:00",0.8355],["2026-08-12T18:05:00+00:00",0.839],["2026-08-13T01:05:00+00:00",0.8425],["2026-08-13T02:05:00+00:00",0.8485],["2026-08-13T08:05:00+00:00",0.8425],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.847],["2026-08-13T13:05:00+00:00",0.839],["2026-08-13T16:05:00+00:00",0.834],["2026-08-13T17:05:00+00:00",0.816],["2026-08-14T00:05:00+00:00",0.8205],["2026-08-14T04:05:00+00:00",0.816],["2026-08-14T07:05:00+00:00",0.816],["2026-08-14T13:05:00+00:00",0.781],["2026-08-14T14:05:00+00:00",0.7765],["2026-08-14T17:05:00+00:00",0.7855],["2026-08-14T23:05:00+00:00",0.7925],["2026-08-15T00:05:00+00:00",0.7795],["2026-08-15T05:05:00+00:00",0.7795],["2026-08-15T07:05:00+00:00",0.7835],["2026-08-15T12:05:00+00:00",0.7835],["2026-08-15T19:05:00+00:00",0.7995],["2026-08-15T20:05:00+00:00",0.795]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-08T21:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-15T20:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":170,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":15.45,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"9b7188c9-3a4f-4663-a425-dc41d05b7904","title":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"2fbc21c42dda2954c91aba19724a30c5fe8559a817d6296e3b20cb56e28d60c0","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T20:14:58.458298+00:00","source_markets":["9b7188c9-3a4f-4663-a425-dc41d05b7904"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}