{"bundle_id":"0c523930-e097-435b-8fc8-e86bda03bd30","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-18T11:18:49.022297+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"eb37db67-059e-4894-a721-42f28b5272af","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.825,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":3.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":134.531,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1304,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":214,"signal_score":1.0652,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"f4fb088c-c53a-4ec4-9459-3c33575e4c79","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-18T11:22:23.819584+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T11:15:21.451116+00:00","external_market_id":"2232193","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.825,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":3.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":134.531,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1304,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":214,"signal_score":1.0652,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-11T12:00:00+00:00",0.79],["2026-08-11T13:00:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-11T15:00:00+00:00",0.825],["2026-08-11T17:00:00+00:00",0.835],["2026-08-11T18:00:00+00:00",0.825],["2026-08-11T19:00:00+00:00",0.82],["2026-08-11T21:00:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-11T22:00:00+00:00",0.845],["2026-08-11T23:00:00+00:00",0.845],["2026-08-12T02:00:00+00:00",0.845],["2026-08-12T05:00:00+00:00",0.845],["2026-08-12T07:05:00+00:00",0.845],["2026-08-12T09:05:00+00:00",0.845],["2026-08-12T12:05:00+00:00",0.845],["2026-08-16T22:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-16T23:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-17T02:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-17T04:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-17T07:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-17T10:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-17T13:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-17T15:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-17T18:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-17T21:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-18T00:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-18T02:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-18T03:05:00+00:00",0.805],["2026-08-18T05:05:00+00:00",0.805],["2026-08-18T06:05:00+00:00",0.81],["2026-08-18T08:05:00+00:00",0.815],["2026-08-18T11:05:00+00:00",0.825]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"gapped","first_observed_at":"2026-08-11T12:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-18T11:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":105.0,"observation_count":65,"points_returned":31,"probability_range_percentage_points":5.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"f4fb088c-c53a-4ec4-9459-3c33575e4c79","title":"Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"eb16e5e0662eb0993a02afec34ea639dea41248a288b2b77c768ad5f5729a9fe","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T11:15:21.451116+00:00","source_markets":["f4fb088c-c53a-4ec4-9459-3c33575e4c79"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}