{"bundle_id":"85a615cf-104a-4064-a801-0a8cb9f27ad6","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-11T16:17:51.933517+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"1d909625-ccbb-47e0-ac82-5ceb5552c9cf","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.13,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.5,"delta_7d":1.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":49.3227,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":220,"signal_score":2.5869,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"939eab7e-902c-4587-a699-00834943d0af","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-11T16:19:48.743471+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T16:15:17.894679+00:00","external_market_id":"2658303","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.13,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.5,"delta_7d":1.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":49.3227,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":220,"signal_score":2.5869,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-04T17:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-04T18:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-05T02:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-05T10:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-05T18:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-06T02:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-06T10:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-06T17:00:00+00:00",0.1],["2026-08-06T18:00:00+00:00",0.1],["2026-08-07T02:00:00+00:00",0.1],["2026-08-07T06:00:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-07T10:00:00+00:00",0.09],["2026-08-07T17:00:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-07T18:00:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-07T19:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-08T02:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-08T10:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-08T18:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-08T21:00:00+00:00",0.09],["2026-08-09T02:00:00+00:00",0.09],["2026-08-09T04:00:00+00:00",0.1],["2026-08-09T10:00:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-09T12:00:00+00:00",0.39],["2026-08-09T16:05:00+00:00",0.21],["2026-08-09T18:00:00+00:00",0.22],["2026-08-09T21:00:00+00:00",0.23],["2026-08-09T22:00:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-09T23:05:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00",0.25],["2026-08-10T03:05:00+00:00",0.23],["2026-08-10T07:05:00+00:00",0.21],["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-10T14:05:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-10T18:05:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-11T00:05:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-11T04:05:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-11T08:05:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-11T16:05:00+00:00",0.13]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-04T17:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-11T16:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":186,"points_returned":39,"probability_range_percentage_points":31.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"939eab7e-902c-4587-a699-00834943d0af","title":"Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"3644f325fdc7117c538dd3f801929c387b1cf543772eba44b319189e802bf577","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-11T16:15:17.894679+00:00","source_markets":["939eab7e-902c-4587-a699-00834943d0af"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}