{"bundle_id":"5fc2443a-4050-486b-a8fa-1ae5d60527ce","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-14T08:20:18.804824+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"a06edd27-48bc-451b-91a2-90991c19d63b","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.225,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.0,"delta_7d":-50.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":6.6551,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.2174,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":288,"signal_score":3.3587,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"2f66b5c6-e574-4db8-859f-1d89e344f8f1","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-14T08:21:51.307071+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-14T08:15:40.155182+00:00","external_market_id":"2663611","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.225,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.0,"delta_7d":-50.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":6.6551,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.2174,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":288,"signal_score":3.3587,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-07T09:00:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-07T10:00:00+00:00",0.735],["2026-08-07T16:00:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-07T17:00:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-07T18:00:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-08T03:00:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-08T04:00:00+00:00",0.695],["2026-08-08T07:00:00+00:00",0.695],["2026-08-08T12:00:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-08T15:00:00+00:00",0.695],["2026-08-08T20:00:00+00:00",0.655],["2026-08-08T22:00:00+00:00",0.645],["2026-08-09T03:00:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-09T06:00:00+00:00",0.615],["2026-08-09T08:00:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-09T14:05:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-09T18:05:00+00:00",0.415],["2026-08-09T21:05:00+00:00",0.42],["2026-08-09T23:05:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-10T02:05:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.28],["2026-08-10T09:05:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-10T14:05:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-10T17:05:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-11T00:05:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-11T10:05:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-11T14:05:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-11T19:05:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-11T21:05:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-12T01:05:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-12T10:05:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-12T11:05:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-12T12:05:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-12T16:05:00+00:00",0.28],["2026-08-12T19:05:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-12T21:05:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-13T02:05:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-13T11:05:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-13T17:05:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-13T18:05:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-14T00:05:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-14T05:05:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-14T08:05:00+00:00",0.225]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-20T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-07T09:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-14T08:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":53.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"2f66b5c6-e574-4db8-859f-1d89e344f8f1","title":"US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"302223a8f90f81fde6a29df5de6349e0e7f2c7e09b6e7dcb8508816908cc7115","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-14T08:15:40.155182+00:00","source_markets":["2f66b5c6-e574-4db8-859f-1d89e344f8f1"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}